Here is what I am taking into account in making my prediction:
1) McConnell is now ahead in the polls, including the one mentioned above.
2) Midterm elections generally favor the party out of power. Especially in the 6th year of an incumbent administration.
3) Incumbents usually win.
4) The Democrat Party, BHO, Harry Reid are VERY unpopular in KY.
5) Grimes is VERY liberal. Bill Clinton has been campaigning for her. They would bring in BHO if they could, but everyone knows that would not sell well in KY.
6) KY while traditionally a Democrat state has been trending strongly GOP in recent years.
Bevin supporters have no where else to go.
Not voting is a vote for Grimes.
Voting third party is a vote for Grimes.
Bevin voters will not want to reward BHO and Harry Reid by electing Grimes.
This isn’t rocket science, it’s Political Science 101.
All of your Points are well taken....... except this one:
“Bevin voters will not want to reward BHO and Harry Reid by electing Grimes.”
Don’t bet the farm on that.