Posted on 08/16/2014 5:45:27 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
DAKAR (Reuters) - The death toll from the worst ever outbreak of Ebola has risen to 1,145, the World Health Organization said on Friday, as 76 new deaths were reported in the two days to August 13 in the four West African nations affected by the epidemic.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Keep in mind that these are the OFFICIAL stats. The real stats are much HIGHER. Plus I believe that Nigeria is stonewalling on their reporting.
“Plus I believe that Nigeria is stonewalling on their reporting. “
There’s probably good reason for this. Nigeria needs food, medicine and other supplies and if ships stopped delivering it they’d have a different problem.
Having said this it would be a good idea to limit all travel to Africa to essential, official contacts only. Ships offloading should be isolated from indigenous contacts. But, that won’t happen until it’s too late.
And this is based on official stats which are a vast underestimate of the reality.
A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
Its very tragic and frightening but this endemic will not cause plague like death rates unless the virus mutates and transmits by a pneumonic process. Otherwise it will remain largely confined to Africa in endemic outbreaks. Educating the local populations about how it is transmitted and good hygiene is the best approach. Currently there is no cure or effective treatment.
So far the it is approximately doubling every week. By August 25 the new cases per day and new deaths per day should be twice what it is now.
Thanks for posting. Health/life/prepare BUMP!
Still that is not the type of carnage that you would expect if these lethal virus were transmitted via aerosolized infected secretions. Sounds silly but the most effective thing that could be sent to West Africa is bleach and soap.
That has potential to cause much more severe impact later.
Hard to say if Nigeria isn't catching some pressure to keep oil revenue flowing, too.
Expats who provide technical expertise and support (from the US and elsewhere) might not be so anxious to work for a paycheck they may not live to cash.
Many fly in and out of Lagos.
We know an infected nurse broke quarantine in Lagos and moved to eastern Nigeria.
I was applying for jobs in places not far removed from the Earth’s anus until Obama announced we’d be pulling out of those places. The sudden and obvious increase in danger is indeed a factor. I can put up with the discomfort in exchange for the money, but getting killed for it, as you point out, changes the equation. (Incidentally, in the following weeks the number of open jobs near the anuses jumped dramatically.)
You couldn’t pay me enough to go to Africa, now or in then next several years.
If we are serious, the US ARMY should set up MASH tents in African airports and screen all passengers headed for a continental US city.
Otherwise, we are just playing, or worse.
Where she died. But at least she got to visit her family one last time.
I suggest anyone interested in more than just the headlines should visit this site. They have a forum with postings from early on in the outbreak. Just spend some time going back over the last couple of weeks of postings. You talk about bleach, they don’t even have rubber gloves. One doctor was using plastic bags over his hands!
The are begging for supplies, healthcare workers, etc. Yet their own limited “professionals” are either dying or going on strike. I don’t see any way this will be controlled in Africa. It will have to burn out.
It will get out to other countries including the U.S.
While I agree we are better prepaired to deal with it, people are people. Just look at what is happening in Ferguson. Do you think that we could control an outbreak in a getto? We will have to have martial law declaired.
I am staying as informed as I can. I am as prepared as I can be. My present strugle is trying to decide at just what point I will close the doors and stay inside.
I work in hospitals and at some point I will have to decide to take my vacation for a couple of weeks, then see how it goes....
“Where she died. But at least she got to visit her family one last time”
The reporting is very “sketchy”, but I understand she also got to go to a wedding. After her husband and taxi driver dropped her off at the hospital, they washed them down with bleach before they departed.
What data sources are you using? Do you have sufficient data to extrapolate the rate of increase to that time? I would love to see the math (and I agree with you).
You should catch up on your reading. Illegal immigrants have been nabbed in Albania and Pisa Italy, and some are showing symptoms. It can get as far as people can get in an incubation period that ranges from 2 to 21 days, depending on initial viral load.
In short, anywhere in the world, via air travel.
While most people in the affected region are too poor to even consider air travel, there are numerous natives and a host of US expatriates there working in the oil industry. The potential to spread globally exists. These will be people who do not yet know they are infected, unlike Sawyer, who likely knew and was already symptomatic when he was on the plane.
The math is based on the reported increases in the past couple of weeks. Of course, the reported cases are way below the actual cases. In any event, the projections I see are 200 new cases per day and 100 deaths per day by first week of September. Official. We shall soon find out.
So much for these idiots who are trying to de-stigmatize ebola.
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