Four observations:
1. I live in Germany and note that FM thrives...mostly off music (rock, opera, jazz, interview formats), and AM is already dead. At best, I can get maybe six channels across the spectrum in clear format, and there’s no reason in Europe to own a AM station.
2. Having lived in the DC area for a couple of years, I can say that FM only has a couple of formats that ensure listeners. Music to some degree works, but sports, news, and conservative chat are what most rely upon to make the bucks. People have a couple of favorites and they don’t necessarily check around to find some new format or style.
3. With the exception of local religious radio stations, extremely rural areas, and local college stations, I’ll predict by 2030 that AM is mostly dissolved on business impact. I’ll even predict that all cars manufactured by 2030 will only have FM or satellite capability.
4. The big news here? It’s not just AM that is dying....the big three networks (ABC, CBS, and NBC)....are also dying. Like the newspaper and magazine business, they have a very limited future.
The meta theme is that when people “go digital”, the gatekeepers lose control. Liberals don’t know how to respond when they cannot seduce or force people to stay on their plantation.
Radio’s going to be fine. It’ll find a niche. The way its programmed right now isn’t going to work.
In NYC, late on weekends, or early on Sundays, you’d have a DJ with huge depth in a certain genre and it was something people taped so that they could hear it when they woke up.
All that was was an early form of podcasting. Sports on the radio still works, very well.
The business model is going to change a little. When those teens start commuting, they’ll listen to the radio. They’ll listen to their iPhones and other things too, but radio will be part of the mix.