Luck and a Little Mystery: The Economy Grows Faster Under Democratic Presidents

New York Times ^ | 08/06/2014 | Jared Bernstein

[SeekAndFind]

Though I typically resist, my wife often tries to get me to put down the laptop and enjoy the Zen of gardening with her. So you can imagine her surprise when she returned from a trip to find a beautiful clump of nonwild flowers planted in her garden. She loved the welcome-home gift and was ready to bestow upon me many valuable (and increasingly elusive) good-husband points.

The thing is, I have no idea how those flowers got there. And like George Washington, I could not tell a lie. But had I in fact been an actual president, I probably would have taken credit.

This incident came to mind upon reading the provocative new paper by the economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson that rigorously examines how the economy has performed under presidents since the 1940s. Their main questions are: Which party’s presidents preside over better economies and why?

Their answer to the first question is clear: The American economy has grown faster — and scored higher on many other macroeconomic metrics — when the president of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican.

The two looked at key macroeconomic variables averaged over 64 years (16 four-year terms), from Harry Truman to Barack Obama. Mr. Blinder and Mr. Watson focus mostly on the 1.8 percent annual difference in real G.D.P. growth. That is, over the full study, real G.D.P. growth averaged 3.33 percent per year. But under Democratic presidents the economy grew 4.35 percent and under Republicans 2.54 percent.

Under Democratic presidents, the economy also spent fewer quarters in recession; added more jobs and more hours worked; and posted larger declines in unemployment and higher corporate profits than under their Republican counterparts. Stock market returns were a lot higher under Democrats as well

[KSCITYBOY]

Fed Pump

[mjp]

First, the fact that half of the gap remains unexplained means that this is still largely an open question. There’s lots of variance left to fight over.

In a free society with a modern advanced division of labor economic system,increased prosperity depends on economic progress which depends on increases in capital accumulation.Increased standard of living for the average worker depends on increases in productivity of labor. Both capital accumulation and productivity of labor depend on increases in saving, investment, and productive expenditure. Increases in saving are slowed down by rat libtard policies of confiscatory taxes, more regulations, more government spending, large deficits,and inflation, and are helped by Republican policies of more freedom of production and trade and more respect for private ownership of the means of production.In the long run rat libtard policies over the past few decades are what have caused the economic decline and decay of America.

[Crim]

Well don’t buy it....it’s spin...

Here is the real deal.....

http://i.imgur.com/f6U05.png

[vpintheak]

Obumbler the communist is destroying this statistic!

[molson209]

Smoke And Bubbles

[Gumdrop]

You are so correct. The economy ebbs and flows directly in regards to who is in control of the House and Senate. The President becomes important only to the degree that he/she allows the economy to grow and does not insist on policies that will derail it.

[DocJhn]

Total BS Bush 1 turned the economy around for Clintoon!
Reagan Saved the Economy for Carter!

W had a handle on it before the Dem Congress and Senate screwed the Pooch!
I was in Business for my self through all these times and know the score! This contributor is a total tool! Hey Dude go garden in the ZEN with your wife!

[Crim]

The president signs the check but congress holds the checkbook.

Remind people that after 6 yrs of Bush having a GOP congress that unemployment was at 4.4% in Nov 06’ , and some people look at you like you just arrived on earth....

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/03/news/economy/jobs_october/index.htm

[VRWC For Truth]

Are they using gov’t statistics? DemocRats lie about everything.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

After four terms. Yea he owned it. They paint a lot rosier picture of FDR’s sloooow recovery than reality also.

[1010RD]

Here's two examples of the biggest failures during Romney's campaign to unseat Obama:

1. He should have gone after black voters right from the start. It would have been easy to show just how bad things were back then and suppress the black vote. Worst case, we'd be two years ahead in noting how bad Obama's been for blacks.

2. Take a look at this Washington Free Beacon piece. Why couldn't Romney or the GOP have come up with the Obama golf story video and played it again and again? Obama Will Not Rest, As Soon As He's Done With Golf

Romney could have done a series of spots from secret locations throughout Cook County showing failing infrastructure, closed businesses (I know one that had an Obama 2008 poster in the window) and corruption/tax/regulation stories. The GOP needs to take the gloves off and stop believing the media. They're liberals, they're hacks and they lie, lie, lie.

[Fightin Whitey]

That rain sure feels warm!

Pretty sure it's the rising seas of climate change.

But go ahead, give 'er a taste to make sure.

[TurboZamboni]

Sort of like which tribe does the best rain dance based on when they get rainfall.

[TwelveOfTwenty]

As for Clinton, he inherited the end of the Cold War, the start of the Tech Boom, and a growing economy. All of that happened as a result of factors that were in place before he was sworn in, but he got the credit for the economic growth that resulted.

[SuperLuminal]

Where is the WTF alert???

[The_Reader_David]

It’s very simple: when things are bad economically, the voters get serious and elect the Republicans as the economically competent party. When the GOP turns things around, people get frivolous and elect the ‘Rats who are then happen to be in the White House during the upturn, ruin things and the cycle repeats.

[tillacum]

Really ????? Evidently he wasn’t alive during the carter administration when interest was at 22%.

[iacovatx]

“Sort of like which tribe does the best rain dance based on when they get rainfall.”

A very appealing analogy.

[Amagi]

“All the Lies We Can Think to Print.” (motto of the NYSlimes)

[cherry]

the Clintoon years were good only because there was a strong Pub congress in 1994.....by the end of his term, Clintoon managed to get us into recession...

all credit to the Pub congress and Clintoon gets only a nod for not interferring....

besides, those years were not great for many people who lived off wages, like us...my husband didn't get a raise for several years in a row and I got just a bit....state and local taxes went thru the roof....