[Greysard]

Could the panels have been shot up on the ground, after the fact, to confuse the investigation?

The entry holes are clean enough to measure; there is no ruler in the photos, but I presume the reports are not lying. If that is so, where would rebels get a 30mm airplane gun, and how would they position it and the debris to get the required angle of entry? I'm pretty sure that you cannot hold that gun in one hand; and you can't even hang it from a crane, as it is bound to have some serious recoil.

The GSh-30-2 is carried by the Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack plane and in external gun pods. It measures 2044 × 222 × 195 mm, with a barrel length of 1500 mm and a weight of 105 kg.

But the final proof can be obtained only if the investigators can trace the same bullet, or the same pattern of bullets, through both sides of the cockpit. That would be possible only if the bullets (or the shrapnel of the missile's warhead) was shot at an intact airplane.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

But the final proof can be obtained only if the investigators can trace the same bullet, or the same pattern of bullets, through both sides of the cockpit.

Hence the final level of stupidity. If this could be proven, the Russkies would have already delivered the parts instead of looting them. It was the Russkies, not the Ukrainians, who sawed the cockpit in half and destroyed most of the evidence. The obvious being so that the steel balls from a Buk would not be found, and they can make up any stories they wanted due to a lack of physical evidence.

[wetphoenix]

~The GSh-30-2 is carried by the Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack plane and in external gun pods. It measures 2044 × 222 × 195 mm, with a barrel length of 1500 mm and a weight of 105 kg.

But the final proof can be obtained only if the investigators can trace the same bullet, or the same pattern of bullets, through both sides of the cockpit. That would be possible only if the bullets (or the shrapnel of the missile’s warhead) was shot at an intact airplane.~

Su-25 has a history of downing commercial airliners back to earlier 1990s when a Muslim officer of Soviet AF went rogue, conspired with Azeri government and spent a few days interdicting Armenian air traffic.

On the other hand it’s shells are 30-mm HE and it leaves nothing similar to bullet holes on it’s target. There are anti-tank armor piercing loads as well but it doesn’t look like a round of choice to take on an aircraft.

Not to mention Ukraine still have plenty of Fulcrums and Flankers, some might be flyable, which are more suitable for a role.

[Spktyr]

The GSh-30-2 fires a 30x165mm round... which is also common to the following Russian ground vehicles:

BMP-2 mechanized infantry combat vehicle
BMP-3 mechanized infantry combat vehicle
BMD-2 airborne combat vehicle
BMD-3 airborne combat vehicle
BMD-4 airborne combat vehicle
BTR-80A armored personnel carrier
BTR-90 or GAZ-5923 armored personnel carrier
BTR-T heavy armored personnel carrier
BMPT ‘Tank Support Fighting Vehicle’

Among others. The 2A38 cannon in this same caliber is also fitted to the Tunguska self propelled anti-aircraft system, which is often deployed with Buk missile batteries.

Entirely possible for it to have been shot up on the ground by 30mm fire.