Posted on 07/07/2014 9:55:17 AM PDT by driftdiver
The bad news first. The People's Republic of China now believes it can successfully prevent the United States from intervening in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or some other military assault by Beijing.
Now the good news. China is wrong and for one major reason. It apparently disregards the decisive power of America's nuclear-powered submarines.
Moreover, for economic and demographic reasons Beijing has a narrow historical window in which to use its military to alter the world's power structure. .........
The U.S. Navy's submarines the unsung main defenders of the current world order must hold the line against China for another 20 years. ......
How China wins
The bad news came from Lee Fuell, from the U.S. Air Force's National Air and Space Intelligence Center, during Fuell's testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 30.
.......
A preemptive strike was, needless to say, a highly risky proposition. If it worked, the PLA just might secure enough space and time to defeat defending troops, seize territory, and position itself for a favorable post-war settlement.
But if China failed to disable American forces with a surprise attack, Beijing could find itself fighting a full-scale war on at least two fronts: against the country it was invading plus the full might of U.S. Pacific Command, fully mobilized and probably strongly backed by the rest of the world.
That was then. But after two decades of sustained military modernization, the Chinese military has fundamentally changed its strategy in just the last year or so. According to Fuell, recent writings by PLA officers indicate "a growing confidence within the PLA that they can more-readily withstand U.S. involvement."
(Excerpt) Read more at theweek.com ...
Barry at the helm and transgender soldiers? yeah. no problem
And they are thinking about it more now than ever. Nobody wins.
thank obastard
Conflict is inevitable when a nation believes it has a window of oppotunity to further a vital national interest, and also believes the window is closing. That’s why Helmuth von Moltke started WW1 a century ago. War is also inevitable when a nation has a leader who, for whatever reason, good or bad, wants to have one. Which is why diplomacy failed in the late 1930s.
Everything else is negotiable.
They are thinking and planning to do it to their largest customer.
Should tell us something.
But the bad news trumps the good news. If your enemy THINKS they can defeat you, you may have to prove to them that they can’t - That is what WW I and WW II were all about.
The writer also fails to mention that any strike on Taiwan would be known weeks before. Question becomes what would Obama do with that information and if history is our guide, we already know.
Presuming we and our allies had the will, that scenario is winnable.
1. Ukraine and Finland engage the Russians, while the Poles, Czechs, and Germans press back into the Baltic States.
2. The USN and USAF turn the Formosa strait into a sea of death for all Chinese shipping, putting the PLA armor on the bottom and leaving their airborne forces to fight it out with the Taiwanese. We then drop the 101st to help secure Taipei. Taiwan would just have to eat the PLA ballistic missiles.
3. South Korea can handle North Korea on its own. Seoul will take a pounding, and we might need to toss is some tactical nukes for chuckles, but SK is militarily superior.
4. Let the Israelis nuke Iran and then press the arabs out of Israel once and for all. For good measure, force all of the Muzzies out of Lebanon and reestablish it as a Christian state homeland for all Copts.
Japan could provide naval and air support in Korea and in the Taiwan AOB.
If China moved on Taiwan, nukes would not be used. All China needs to do now, is simply take it.
They likely have 80 to 90 million soldier-aged single men with which to create an expeditionary and occupying force.
If the Chinese lost all of them in battle, it would likely improve the situation they currently have in China, in that there are many, many more men than women there. It’s almost the reverse problem Australia had after WWII. There were five women to every man in Australia in 1948.
Wave after wave, as it were.
The problem, of course, is equipment and logistics. You have to kit out 90 million men, and then you have to arm, feed, and transport them to where you want to occupy.
When you are done occupying, you have to ensure the local economy there doesn’t collapse such that it just adds to your problem.
And after we say no, we will just keep paying the interest like always?
China Won’t invade Taiwan
China could “win” but it would cost too much. All Taiwan has to do is lob a few cruise missiles at the Three Gorges Dam and a third of China will be underwater.
The disaster that would cause beats any gain they would get by taking over Taiwan.
What theyve done in the past is arm about 1/3 of the troops and tell the rest to pick a gun up off the ground.
The unarmed ones are bullet catchers.
I dare you to even try to remove him from the WH you red Commies! (hoping it works....)
> It may not matter whether China can actually defeat the US in battle. The dangerous time is when China thinks it can and is willing to test their theory.
ESPECIALLY with Russia as an ALLY
I think you nailed it.
The two countries are so interconnected economically that a conflict would be devastating for both.
How effective would our submarines be in the Spratleys, should China move to take them over?
THAT'S NOT TRUE! This is important enough that even if Obama could not do it himself because of a conflict with his tee time, I'm sure he would send out SOS Kerry to scold the ChiComs on the dangers of global warming, the need for 21st Century diplomacy, proper LGBT representation, or some other urgent issue of real importance. He probably wouldn't do anything beyond that.
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