“Let’s suppose that Bush II had:
1. picked a younger vice-president, someone who could have ran in 2008.”
I doubt ANY Republican was going to win in 2008; the economy had taken a disastrous turn (with widely-publicized job losses), and many of the problems today had started already (Obama just sped up the process).
More than that. The political news machine was pretty much in the bank against GOP winning upon Bush’s re-election. IMHO, some people wanted him to win re-election so that you would have moreto blame on the GOP in general.