Terrible night overall, with a handful of exceptions.
Unless McDaniel can find 6,000 or so Democrats who voted yesterday *after having voted in the Democrat primary earlier in the month^ then he won’t be able to succeed in his election challenge.
In OK, it’s terribly disappointing how Lankford conned his way into convincing many conservatives to vote for him over conservative star T.W. Shannon, but I agree that Lankford won’t be that bad in the Senate. I hope that Shannon gets another shot at major office soon (perhaps in OK-04 if Cole retires after this next term).
In U.S. House races in OK, Patrice Douglas (whom I supported) made the OK-05 run-off against Steve Russell. Both are conservatives.
In CO, Beauprez won the gubernatorial nod by a 30%-27% margin over Tom Tancredo; I supported Geser, but Beauprez has a decent chance to win the general while Tancredo would have been a longshot. Meanwhile, Major General Rayborn came close to an upset of Congressman Lamborn; both are conservative.
In NY, huge disappointment in that RINO Hanna beat out Tenney for the GOP nod by 53%-47% in NY-22, but Hanna probably would have been elected in November even had Tenney pulled off the upset because he’s the Independence Party nominee and there’s no Democrat on the ballot (another example of a Democrat-RINO alliance).
But there were some bright spots in NY. State Senator Lee Zeldin beat George Demos for the GOP nomination in NY-01, which should serve to consolidate all right-of-center votes in a single candidate (Zeldin is also the nominee of the Conservative Party and the Libertarian Party). Meanwhile, RAT Congressman Tim Bishop (who is also the nominee of the Working Families Party and the Independence Party) could lose liberal votes in the general to the Green Party nominee, and I like our chances in what by all rights should be a GOP-held district. (As an added bonus, if Zeldin wins then the media won’t be able to say that there aren’t any Jewish Republicans in Congress.)
Another bright spit was Bruce Blakeman winning the NY-04 GOP primary. Now, Scaturro probably is a bit more conservative than Blakeman, but Blakeman already had the ballot lines from the Conservative and Independence Parties, so having Scaturro as the GOP nominee likely would have thrown the general to Democrat Jathleen Rice in a district in which we have little room for error.
And similarly, it’s a relief that Conservative Party nominee Elise Stefanik won the GOP nomination (and by a comfortable 62%-38% margin over Matt Doheny in the open-seat NY-21 where only a split Republican vote could cause the second-tier Democrat to win. Sure, Doheny might get some votes as the Independence Party nominee (and I share the hope that he can find a way to remove himself from the ballot, but traditionally the Independence Party pulls fewer votes than does the Conservative Party, and Stefanik should not lose many more votes to Doherty than the Democrat will to the Green. I also will add my opinion that Stefanik is more conservative than Doherty, although some may disagree because she received early endorsement from GOP establishment figures (whom some FReepers sometimes forget have the goal of beating Democrats) prior to Doheny’s late entry into the race. This is an almost certain GOP pick-up.
But the least noticed bit of good news for Republicans last night might be Nan Hayworth’s apparent victory over RAT Congressman Sean Maloney for the NY-18 Independence Party nomination. The race hasn’t been called for some reason, but Hayworth is listed as leading 52%-48% (IIRC) with 100% if precincts reporting. It was a very low-turnout affair, with about 1,600 votes combined, but if Hayworth indeed captured the Independence Party ballot line it would provide another bullet for her (and take one away from Maloney) in the November shootout. I think that Hayworth will have about even odds of retaking her House seat this November.
didn’t notice the IP with Hayworth.
primaries are open to candidates who are not members. Guess some IP guy could run in a DEM primary down in the cities.
Not true in CT.
Re: NY1
Some have voiced concerned over Zeldin because Demos says he’s voted to fund Obamacare, I believe this a delibrite distortion. Conservative Party chairman Mike Long denouced Demos’ attack ads.
Zeldin similarly unfairly attacked Demos, calling him a “Pelosi Republican” because Demos’ father in law donated to Demos’ campaign and also to Pelosi. It was a very nasty race.
Good news on Hayworth getting the IP line.
So it looks like
NY-21 is maybe third on our takeover list after the seats in NC and UT?
NY-1 we have a good chance
NY-18 we have a good chance (according to Wikipedia Rothenberg surprisingly has it as safe D, most people say lean D)
NY-4 we have a chance. Redistricting was not kind to the Long Island seats, I believe Israel’s is the only one that got more Republican.
Odds are probably better than even that Grimm will lose so I hope to offset that other gains in state. If Grimm does lose I hope State Senator Andrew Lanza runs in 2016.
Bad new in NY unrelated to the election, the breakaway democrats that are in a coalition with Senate Republicans are very fearful of primary challengers, so they say they are ending the coalition. The Senate is supposedly in recess for the rest of the year.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/new-york-state-senate-coalition-ends-1403748346
We need Republicans to gain outright control in this upcoming election (hopefully keeping Simcha Felder in the fold), WSJ say that is “unlikely”.