It’s unlikely they’ll retain control. It’s certain they’ll suffer a net loss. 3 seats are virtually certain to come to us (WV, SD, MT) and only 2 of ours are vulnerable (KY, GA).
Unlike 2012 most of our targets are GOP states and the only GOP seat in a rat state up is Maine which is safe RINO for Susie Collins. And just as importantly, this is a midterm of a President that’s not popular. Barry’s fan club showed up to reelect him but they skipped 2010. The majority of voters this election will have a negative opinion of Obama.
In addition to the 3 that I already mentioned we should take AR, AK, LA and NC. The rat is NOT favored in MI, slightly or otherwise, that’s a GOP edge. CO is a tossup at worse. IA, only a slight rat edge at worst. MN (Franken only narrowly leads nobody Republicans) and NH are lesser chances to keep an eye on. The party also has some hope in VA and OR but I don’t think those will be competitive. And Angus Baronet in Maine may flip his allegiance because all he cares about is his personal level of influence.
Whining about “rigged” elections is tiresome. How did they let us take the House and keep it if the outcome were “predetermined”? Fraudulent votes make up the margin of difference in a small number of very close races, they don’t turn GOP routs into the rats gaining seats. Fraud isn’t sorcery. The rats when they lost in 2002 and 2004 had a similar fantasy about “diebold election machines” being rigged. Excuses for losing are just that.
We lost in 2012 mostly due to shite candidates like WM Romney, Tommy “Grandpa” Thompson and Connie Mack the lesser. Any winnable race we don’t win this year will likewise be far more likely to be caused by our candidate being crummy than by fraud.
Fraud cost us only 1 Senate seat in 2012 (ND) and that was only possible because our guy did a horrible job. Libertarians cost us another (ME) and likewise our candidate wasn’t running a good campaign. Idiot candidates making short bus comments about rape cost us 2 more (MO, IN).
I didn’t think the rats could score a net gain of 2 in 2012 but THEY did and their polls that we dismissed unfortunately turned out to be accurate. They don’t think they’ll win this time.
This one writer writing this one SPECULATIVE article about how things could POSSIBLY turn around for the rats IF they get really lucky is not “the media” starting to “change the narrative” to fit a rat win. People who write regular columns need topics. You should see some stupid sports columns I’ve read, writer just had a deadline and needed to submit something.
History shows that for a President’s party to do well in a midterm, and by well I mean break even or gain slightly, he needs to be popular.
When Obama’s approval rating starts mirroring Bubba’s in 1998, then you can start talking seriously about slight rat gains being possible. And even if that occurs, is Obama gonna have positive approval in goddamn Arkansas or Alaska? Hell no. Obama getting more popular would hurt us in MI, CO and IA but the only way we don’t pick up those Senate seats in the so-called “red states” is if our candidates blow it.
Meant to ping you guys too.
I wrote a small essay so feel free to skip it. ;d
Wait, the Libertarian lost us the Montana race, not the Maine race. Maine was lost ‘cos they elect morons habitually (Angus King is the latest and perhaps most embarrassing)
What makes me think there's widespread fraud is the fact that I've learned to accept the anomaly. I remember the first couple of times when watching returns, I was sure we'd won. The races were close but Republicans firmly in the lead. But then, at the last minute, some big city came in and, Magic Circus, the Dem pulled ahead.
The first couple of times that happened, I figured we lost, weird but we lost. Then, when it became the norm, when every close race was pulled out for the Dem at the last minute, after all the other votes were counted, then I saw the handwriting on the wall. This includes the VA Governor race of late.