Posted on 04/17/2014 8:31:20 AM PDT by Kenny
It's a virtual article of faith among election analysts that Republicans will gain Senate seats in the 2014 midterms. I tend to agree with that assessment, and strongly so. In fact, like other forecasters such as Alan Abramowitz and Nate Silver, I think Republicans have the edge in the battle to take control of the upper chamber this November.
But there is one place where I part company with most forecasters. I’m not 100 percent confident that Republicans will gain seats. In fact, when I analyzed the Senate races in February, my simulation created a few scenarios where Republicans did, in fact, lose seats. (It’s also worth remembering that while a seven-to-nine seat Republican gain was the most likely scenario, in about 60 percent of the scenarios, Republicans gained some number other than seven, eight, or nine.)
Don’t get me wrong: For Democrats to gain seats this cycle would be the equivalent of drawing a straight flush. With that said, straight flushes do occur, so it’s worth examining how it might occur here.
The first thing that would have to happen is that the playing field would have to improve for Democrats. Of the 11 Democratic seats that RCP currently rates as leans Democratic or worse, Democrats are probably at least slightly favored in Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and perhaps Colorado. If the political dynamic were to shift toward the party, these seats would probably be out of the GOP’s reach on Election Day.
The way this could occur is fairly straightforward: The Affordable Care Act improves; there’s no massive rate shock for premiums in September or October; and the economy slowly gains ground. This should propel President Obama’s job approval upward, lifting the collective Democratic boat.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
If the GOPe continues it’s war on conservatives, many are going to be turned of from voting
Absolutely.
There is NO serious penalty for voting fifty times
— if you are with al Qaeda, a criminal illegal,
or a Democrat.
And preventing voters from voting
is a specialty of the DO”J” and its Black Panthers.
Election fraud is a SPECIALTY of the DO”J” and IR”S”,
political/medical/judicial arms
of the criminal enterprise
run by Obama-the-Undocumented.
Scenario one: Massive voter fraud, in which Republican votes are 'lost' and Democrat votes pour in from double- and triple-voters, the dead, and are electronically created out of thin air.
Scenario two: Massive voter fraud, in which Republican votes are 'lost' and Democrat votes pour in from double- and triple-voters, the dead, and are electronically created out of thin air.
Scenario three: Massive voter fraud, in which Republican votes are 'lost' and Democrat votes pour in from double- and triple-voters, the dead, and are electronically created out of thin air.
Scenario four: Massive voter fraud, in which Republican votes are 'lost' and Democrat votes pour in from double- and triple-voters, the dead, and are electronically created out of thin air.
You forgot Scenario five: they don’t even bother counting the votes and just send made-up poll returns to their friends in the MSM showing Democrat landslides.
Very true but many of them are not even pretending to be severely conservative this time
I’m gonna be working for Scott Brown in New Hampshire this year *not* because he’s my dream candidate...or anywhere close to my dream candidate...but because he’s not even close to being the filthy,stinking,Maoist whore that Jean Shaheen is.
Highly unlikely. Midterm elections are VERY different from presidential elections. The electorate in midterm elections is significantly smaller, older, and whiter than is generally the case in presidential elections, therefore significantly more conservative and more Republican and more motivated. Further, the Party in power tends to lose seats in midterm elections-—this is especially even more prounounced in the 6th year of a presidency. History clearly does not favor the Dems this November, although demographic changes continue to favor them in presidential elections.
They plan on cheating so they have to try to make it look close. Though anymore, they openly cheat and know nobody will do a thing about it.
That would be racist.
It is all about GOTV and locking up ALL absentee balloters.
(nursing homes, seniors, low information voters, etc)
You forgot the ballots in the trunk of a car!
And mysterious power outages. And ink spilled all over the voter logs.
the effete nyc dominant media is already reporting on the incredible wonderfulness of obamacare
Anything is possible, and the Establishment Republicans are famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
After all, Harry S Truman “lost” the Presidential election in 1948. This was documented most famously in a headline in the Chicago Tribune.
The Establishment Republicans have a very strong potential ally in their bid to regain control of the Senate and making the Current Occupant of the Oval Orifice into the lamest duck in history. But it may involve sacrificing some of their closest “cronies” and respecting the wisdom of the adults in the room.
Seize them by the gonads, and their hearts and minds shall surely follow
so is Yahoo News. I read it and then I need to take a sedative immediately afterward. These people live in an alternate universe.
Kudos, that's what we need is to kick out the commies. Hey, that could be a slogan!
Unhindered Vote Fraud supported by both parties of the ruling class.
I hope you're wrong because then the bad guys win. Actually, if anyone is ok with a Democrat winning over their candidate it's the GOPe because for them it's six one way a half dozen the other. And I believe they'd gladly sacrifice a majority to stop the Tea Party.
Don't let them win, vote Republican and pray we have enough conservatives to turn the tide.
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