What happens next?
He will need to permanently station a hundred thousand troops there to protect the vastly outnumbered Russian minority.
He will need to install a pro-Putin puppet government, which will be hated by 80% of the population.
He will need to create a new, violent, secret police apparatus to control the 30 million people who now hate him.
And, the Ukraine economy, already in terrible shape, will collapse.
And, what will be gained?
Well, he will have regained a “buffer” state to protect Mother Russia from Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and Moldova, not to mention extra protection from the vast war mongering armies of France, Germany, and Turkey.
I suppose he can re-collectivize the farms in Ukraine, and then he can seize most of the food produced and distribute it pure blood Russians.
Or, maybe something else more practical is going on here?
I think the prize was Crimea, and now Putin has it.
Crimea is 60% Russian, and they clearly want to be part of Russia.
Historically, Crimea was an independent Russian territory for almost 40 years after the 1917 Revolution, it was not part of Ukraine.
And, most important to Putin, Crimea occupies a strategic position in the Black Sea.
Can this situation blow up into something more dangerous?
I'm sure it can, but I personally doubt it.
Unless Putin starts to threaten the Baltic nations - Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - I think America has very little to worry about here.
While only about 38+% of Ukraine is ethnic Russian, outside of the far Western provinces most are either pro-Russian or ambivalent.
There will not be an insurgency against Russia except if they take the historically Polish/Western provinces.
And they've essentially offered those to Poland.
Ribbentrop II.
Yup, he will need to RE-install the pro-Putin puppet government (which Obama helped overthrow), and which will continue to be hated by 80% of the population. And he will need to provide troops to secure his pipelines, his gas contracts and his land corridor to Russian Crimea and his military bases closer to NATO Europe. And Obama and Europe will say, “Thank you sir, may we have some more.”
The Ukranians will have been thrown under the bus for “peace in our time.”
The goal is Odessa. What do the Oligarchs in that city want - EU austerity measures or Russian cash with the attendant strings. Troops and security apparatus are no longer needed. Those functions have been privatized.
I think the problem is that until Russia builds a big bridge and other infrastructure over to Crimea, from Russia, Putin needs Kherson / a land route. Kherson is only ~ 25% Russian speaking, probably less (%) Russian (occupation force) supporting. Ukraine already turned off the power to Crimea for several hours, ostensibly to get hostages returned. That effort failed, but it does show that Putin’s move to date is not without its problems for him, even “locally”. Many Ukrainians ARE pissed, now, and if the ultra-nationalists can sieze on that / force a confrontation over access to Crimea, well, who knows.
The other interesting consideration is that Russia’s Black Sea fleet is really only good for bullying their smaller area neighbors. The Italian Navy alone could send it to the bottom. So, why does Putin need Crimea so badly, when he was in little danger of losing the base there anyway?