I think the problem is that until Russia builds a big bridge and other infrastructure over to Crimea, from Russia, Putin needs Kherson / a land route. Kherson is only ~ 25% Russian speaking, probably less (%) Russian (occupation force) supporting. Ukraine already turned off the power to Crimea for several hours, ostensibly to get hostages returned. That effort failed, but it does show that Putin’s move to date is not without its problems for him, even “locally”. Many Ukrainians ARE pissed, now, and if the ultra-nationalists can sieze on that / force a confrontation over access to Crimea, well, who knows.
The other interesting consideration is that Russia’s Black Sea fleet is really only good for bullying their smaller area neighbors. The Italian Navy alone could send it to the bottom. So, why does Putin need Crimea so badly, when he was in little danger of losing the base there anyway?
Tartus, Syria, where the Russians have a Naval Base...Syria isn't exactly the most stable of places these days, so it multiplies the importance of her Black Sea Fleet.
Not sure I agree with that.
The crisis came to a head when a moderately pro-Putin government was overthrown.
Long term, it's not clear to me what sort of government will replace the old one.
I think Putin's hand was, to some extent, forced by the political uncertainty in Ukraine.
But, Putin has certainly been opportunistic, too, since Crimea is majority Russian, and Obama is a comically weak president.
I am sure things have changed, but in the 70s there was a constant stream of Russian warships and subs going up and down the Bosphurus and these ships looked war ready. Low in the water with full crews on deck. It was an awesome sight because you could see them close up.