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To: annalex
All politics is to one degree or another an exercise of power.
Please don't tell me you've become one of those who govern their opinions by polls. Polls are the most manipulated thing on this planet.
Again, perhaps a “secret” majority of the Crimeans, want to remain as part of Ukraine, but until some evidence of that desire manifests itself, we are left with the fact that however bent, however thin, the results of the referendum is the only straw on which we can grasp.
But one fact is absolutely certain, if Ukraine fixates on Crimea, it will lose everything. The country will be dismembered by Russia or absorbed entirely by Moscow. If Ukraine tries to lean on the US, NATO, or the EU, it will find that reed not only bent but non-existent.
The geography of Ukraine will never allow it to become part of Europe. It must carve out some sort of existence for itself - as has Finland - that is separated from Russia but not absolutely independent of it. If the government in Kiev persists in attempting to pull away completely - by joining NATO or the EU - tragedy will result. Russia is simply too big, too powerful, and too close. If absorption does not come by Putin, it will be by someone else, by some other Czar or president.
I suggest you remember a quotation attributed to a president of Mexico, “Poor Mexico, so far from God, so close to the US.”
Were I Ukrainian, this condition of national survival would gall me to the bottom of my soul. I would want to be part of Europe. I would want to mingle on equal terms with
other residents of the EU.
But I want Ukraine to survive. And it won't survive, if it attempts to extricate itself completely from Russia.
Let the RF have Crimea. Better to let it go, as a desperately ill man might be willing to lose a diseased foot that's poisoning his system - than to fight over what cannot be saved.
Remember, national existence is a generational obligation. Quibbling over constitutional niceties is not the road to survival in a dangerous neighborhood.
150 posted on 03/26/2014 7:19:32 AM PDT by quadrant (1o)
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To: quadrant
Basically, Ukraine has two models from which to choose. It can choose the French model and end up with endless quarrels and considerable violence over constitutional arrangements; or Ukraine can choose the British model and make muddling through pragmatic decisions that occasionally leave constitutional details for historians and academic study.
Each choice has virtues. But please remember that the British model has remained unchanged - allowing for the Cromwellian interregnum - for centuries. While France has since 1789 endured two monarchies, two empires, and five republics. And remember that once a choice has been made, its difficult to reverse. So, think carefully before you insist on the neatness of an absolutely legal referendum.
151 posted on 03/26/2014 8:43:32 AM PDT by quadrant (1o)
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To: quadrant
Polls

I said nothing about polls. What I did say was that last time the opinion of Crimeans was gauged in a referendum was 1991 and the result then was that they were 54% for independence from Russia (then represented by the Russian Sovier Federative Socialist Republic, RSFSR). 42% were against independence. The turnout was also the lowest in Crimea at 60%. That was the closest, but still a clear win for those favoring independence. Similarly, ethnic Russians favored independence at 55%. Ukrainian independence referendum, 1991.

if Ukraine fixates on Crimea, it will lose everything

What the Ukrainians do and on what they fixate is up to the Ukrainians. It is rather evident that the energy to fight for Crimea is not there; however it doesn't make the annexation right. The likely scenario is that Crimea will become like these other acquisitions of the Russian Federation: Abkhazia and Osetia, with an indeterminate status and underdeveloped economy. RF will lose all the prestige it struggled to accumulate for the past 20 years. The best for RF would be to leave Crimea voluntarily and set up another Crimea referendum with observers and with cooperation from Ukraine. That is likely to result in a legal annexation; and at the same time that will allow Ukraine to safeguard true sovereignty, including whichever alliances military or economic it wishes to join. But RF is not likely to have the wisdom to do that.

NATO membership for Ukraine is largely up to NATO. All Russia's neighbors have learned the lesson by now that if they want sovereignty they need to join NATO ass soon as possible.

Do not discard the possibility that RF will invade in the East, either after fomenting a civil war in Ukraine or not. The latest developments show that The Ukrainian Revolution has entered an uncertain phase. So Crimea may very well be a moot point for the coming couple of years.

154 posted on 03/26/2014 5:46:47 PM PDT by annalex (fear them not)
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