What does Vladimir Putin want next?

This is CNN ^ | March 21, 2014 | By Tim Lister

[Jim Robinson]

Simferopol, Crimea (CNN) -- Is Russian President Vladimir Putin an opportunist, grabbing at chances to poke the West in the eye, or a clever strategist with the longer-term goal of restoring a greater Russia? Is he simply riding a tide of Russian patriotic fervor over Crimea? Is he a rational actor aware of the delicate balances within the international system, or as one observer put it, "drunk on power" and oblivious to sanctions?

These are the questions preoccupying western governments and Russia's neighbors, after the swift annexation of Crimea and Russian military maneuvers close to the Ukrainian border.

There were some tantalizing clues in Putin's pugnacious speech to the Duma this week. He described the fall of the Soviet Union as unfortunate -- because it had separated Russians. "The Russian nation became one of the biggest, if not the biggest ethnic group in the world to be divided by borders," he said.

"It was only when Crimea ended up as part of a different country that Russia realized that it was not simply robbed, it was plundered." He went on to say, "if you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard."

Heady, populist rhetoric -- but it has propelled the Russian President to his highest approval rating -- 71% -- in recent years, according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center.

Putin said Russia had no intention of violating Ukraine's sovereignty (beyond the 5% of its territory it has absorbed this week.) "Do not believe those who want you to fear Russia, shouting that other regions will follow Crimea," he told Ukrainians.

[Terry L Smith]

How large was Tsarist Russia, compared to the USSR?
How many ‘Stan’s are bordered to Russia?

If Vladimir Putin said, “A Russia for all Russians.”, and with the USSR, how many Russians are located in those bordering areas, outside of the old Warsaw Pact nations?

[M Kehoe]

Was it the Beatles White Album that had the song, Back to the USSR ?

5.56mm

[Jim Robinson]

We became involved the moment Obama was elected, won the “Peace Prize” and then commenced destroying our economy and our military. Weakness does not impress the Evil Empires of the world.

[goldstategop]

At least 25 million. That’s not a group a country with a rapidly declining population like Russia can afford to overlook.

More than even land, Russia needs more people. I’m surprised the West hasn’t figured it out yet.

[tcrlaf]

As I said back when this started, everything Southeast of the Dneiper, most especially the Donetsk region, because of the Heavy Industry and critical minerals of this area.

Again, Russian majority, and largely unhappy with the government in Kiev.

Another violent incident or two is all it is going to take for Putin to act here, especially after the non-response of the West.

[Carry_Okie]

Zero never did say how he planned to be "more flexible."

I think the left hated Reagan winning the cold war and has been working to reverse that victory ever since. The key to halting the process is dropping the price of oil and gas, as that is what has always funded the Russian war machine.

[tcrlaf]

To continue:

It’s important to remember that Russia didn’t act in Crimea until the legit government fell, and the new one started pronouncing anti-Russian rhetoric, and demanding the end of the Russian language in Ukraine.

This just didn’t start overnight. It has been building for some time, as the same groups that destabilized Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, went to work in Ukraine, including the US Government.

[ZOOKER]

What does he want? Simple and obvious - he wants better access to the Mediterranean. Crimea, with its warm-water ports, is only the first step, because two things still block easy access:

Access to Crimea from Russia - Ukraine stands in the way. I don't expect Putin to invade, since I don't think he'll need to. He already has the Ukrainian gov't pretty well cowed into submission.

Access to Mediterranean from Crimea: Turkey has already threatened to close the Straits of Bosporus to Russian shipping due to the Crimean situation. That can't sit well with Putin. Turkey will be a much tougher nut for Putin to crack, IMHO.

[tcrlaf]

“Turkey has already threatened to close the Straits of Bosporus to Russian shipping due to the Crimean situation. That can’t sit well with Putin.”

Turkey has its hands full with internal problems right now.

[FreeReign]

Residents of Estonia by ethnicity. Estonians   68.7% Russians   24.8% Ukrainians   2.0% Belarusians   1.1% Finns   0.8% Others   1.6%

Up against the Russian border, Ida-Viru county in Estonia is about 73% ethnic Russian. The other 14 counties in Estonia are largely Estonian.

Putin could probably walk in and take Ida-Viru but that might be his last play. No other region in Eastern Europe outside of Russia has a majority ethnic Russians.

Any other region besides Ida-Viru in Estonia(73% Russian) and Crimea in Ukraine(57% Russian) would be an entirely different circumstance.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“Another violent incident or two is all it is going to take for Putin to act here, especially after the non-response of the West.”

It’s not just ‘non-response’. Western leftists are actually complicit, and this definitively includes the current administration.

I am worried that we are too far along this path at his point, and that there is a dwindling chance that we can get beyond this without a substantial reordering of the world. There has never been, in history, a more destructive sociopolitical force than that fueled by the delusional disciples of Marx and his fellow travelers.

[FreeReign]

As I said back when this started, everything Southeast of the Dneiper, most especially the Donetsk region, because of the Heavy Industry and critical minerals of this area. Again, Russian majority, and largely unhappy with the government in Kiev

No. Only Crimea Oblast has a Russian majority in Ukraine.

[Focault's Pendulum]

Thanks. Did not know that about Ida-Viru but it makes sense.

[noinfringers2]

I don’t know that Putin is a chess player or not but I would guess he is because chess is very much into the Russian culture. I think Putin with a pawn and one other board piece of his choice would/could wipe out Obama with full board. Obama is less than a lightweight in anything except talking the game. At least the Russians have a reality about their oil and gas while the powers that be in the USA, Obama being the latest representative, would rather have the USA beholding to others especially the Arab Muslims.

[Grampa Dave]

What does Putin want?

Two more terms of Obozo as president, aka FDR.

Then, the new Russia, not the old USSR, will be the dominant power in the world. America will have slipped into the post America status, where gays and other mentally ill rats rule what's left of our country.

[Marguerite]

[Marguerite]

Russian Federation map, 1992

[Zhang Fei]

He knows what he's dealing with. I only worry that O needs a huge distraction. War would easily provide that.

Russia really doesn't have any good cards to play. Uncle Sam is so much stronger than Russia on the conventional front that the US could deal with the problem without breaking a sweat, and that means merely arming the Ukrainians. Putin is bluffing on the assumption that Obama doesn't want any foreign policy entanglements. If Obama decides to act, Putin will fall all over himself backing down. And that's why Putin has been measured in his actions - he doesn't want to rouse Obama out of his languor.

[Eva]

I am about to post an article from National Review by Andrew McCarthy that explains the history that has enabled Putin to make these aggressive moves in the region and how the US foreign policy played right into his hands.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/373964/transnational-transgressions-andrew-c-mccarthy

[caveat emptor]

Putin wants all he can easily take. And he will take all he can when there's no one there to stop him.

Canadian PM Stephen Harper can't do it alone, but he's working on it.

The prime minister — who called for a "complete reversal" of Russia's subsequent annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula — laid a large bouquet of red carnations along a stone wall near Independence Square, Kiev, Ukraine, on Saturday, March 22, 2014 on his way to the G7 meeting in the Hague.



"It is for Ukrainians, and for Ukrainians only, to decide their future," Harper told a news conference with the interim Ukrainian prime minister shortly before his visit to the square.

"In this principle, Canada will not waver. And to help the Ukrainian people peacefully secure a bright future of freedom, we shall spare no effort."

Harper met with Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk at the Cabinet of Ministers building on Saturday in the midst of the most serious crisis in eastern Europe since the Cold War.

He gave Yatsenyuk the Ukrainian flag that flew on Parliament Hill during part of the country's uprising. Harper also later sat down with the new Ukrainian president at the nearby presidential palace.

Yatsenyuk was effusive in his praise of Canada for its full-throated support of Ukraine during their news conference.

He grew agitated when reminding reporters that Ukraine voluntarily rid itself of its nuclear arsenal years ago, only to have Russian perform an "armed robbery of Ukrainian independence" by making a play for Crimea.

Yatsenyuk also jokingly made a pitch to replace Russia in the G8.

"If the G8 has an empty seat, we are ready to take it," he exclaimed as the assembled media and politicians erupted in laughter.

Harper, meantime, reiterated his tough stance against Russia.

"For Ukraine, the consequences of the actions of the Putin regime are obvious and can only be remedied by their complete reversal," he said.

"All of us who desire peace and stability in the world must recognize that the consequences of these actions will be felt far beyond the borders of Ukraine or even the European continent itself."

He also provided a preview of what he's likely to argue to his fellow G7 leaders at an emergency summit in The Hague on Monday on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit.

"I think it is important that we in the free world not accept the occupation of Crimea, that we continue to resist and sanction the occupation of Crimea and that there be no return to business as usual with the Putin regime until such time as the occupation of Crimea ends," he said.

The prime minister's visit to Kyiv comes during an extraordinarily tense time for eastern Europe amid fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be pondering flexing his muscles in other countries that were once part of the Soviet bloc.

Harper's Ukrainian counterpart agreed that a strong international response to Russia's actions in Crimea was crucial.

"Russia violating international agreements, Russia making an armed robbery to Ukrainian independent territory, undermined global security," said Yatsenyuk.

"It's up to the UN and a number of international organizations to find the way how to contain those who violate the deals, who breach the deals and who invade the neighbours."

The two leaders met as pro-Russian forces stormed a Ukrainian air force base in Crimea, firing shots and stun grenades and smashing through concrete walls with armoured personnel carriers. At least one person was wounded, the base commander said.

Russian forces have been seizing Ukrainian military facilities for several days in the Black Sea peninsula, which voted a week ago to secede and join Russia. Harper and his western allies have called that referendum an illegitimate vote.

Harper is expected to deliver his account of the situation on the ground in Ukraine to his G7 colleagues in the coming days, and to push them to take a tougher stand. Germany is of particular concern given that country's close economic ties to Russia.

The head of the Ukrainian Canadian congress, who was in Kyiv with Harper, said he thought the prime minister had significant sway with the G7.

"I think he is highly recognized within the leadership of the G7, we've seen the kind of influence he's had even with President Obama," said Paul Grod.

"We hope to see that when he meets with the G7 on Monday that he'll be able to impress upon him personal first hand discussions and view of the situation in Ukraine, and convince him to in fact push Russia out of the G8 and make it a G7."