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The Hitler Model [Victor Davis Hanson]
Hoover Institution ^ | March 18, 2014 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 03/20/2014 3:34:27 PM PDT by 1rudeboy

Why do weak nations like Russia provoke stronger ones like the United States?

An ascendant Vladimir Putin is dismantling the Ukraine and absorbing its eastern territory in the Crimea. President Obama is fighting back against critics that his administration serially projected weakness, and thereby lost the ability to deter rogue regimes. Obama, of course, rejects the notion that his own mixed signals have emboldened Putin to try something stupid that he might otherwise not have. After all, in terms of planes, ships, soldiers, nuclear strength, and economic clout, Putin must concede that he has only a fraction of the strength of what is at the disposal of the United States.

In the recriminations that have followed Putin’s daring intervention, Team Obama has also assured the international community that Putin is committing strategic suicide, given the gap between his ambitions of expanding the Russian Federation by threats of force and intimidation, and the rather limited means to do so at his disposal. Perhaps Putin is pandering to Russian public opinion or simply delusional in his wildly wrong calculations of all the bad things that may befall him.

Do any of those rationalizations matter—given that Putin, in fact, did intervene, plans to stay in the eastern Ukraine, and has put other former member states of the former Soviet Union on implicit notice that their future behavior may determine whether they too are similarly absorbed?

History is replete with examples of demonstrably weaker states invading or intervening in other countries that could in theory or in time bring to their defense far greater resources. On September 1, 1939, Hitler was both militarily and economically weaker than France and Britain combined. So what? That fact certainly did not stop the Wehrmacht over the next eight months from invading, defeating, and occupying seven countries in a row.

Hitler was far weaker than the Soviet Union. Still, he foolishly destroyed his non-aggression pact with Stalin to invade Russia on June 22, 1941. Next, Nazi Germany, when bogged down outside Moscow and having suffered almost a million casualties in the first six months of Operation Barbarossa, certainly was weaker than the United States, when Hitler idiotically declared war on America on December 11, 1941.

Yet all those demonstrably stupid moves did not prove that Hitler himself agreed that that he was weaker than his targets. Much less did Nazi Germany have any good reason from recent experiences to accept the fact that it was weaker than were its enemies. Even Neville Chamberlain did not claim that Hitler had invaded Poland because he was weaker than France and Britain—though again he probably was.

From Benito Mussolini’s invasions in 1940-41 of France, the Balkans, and Greece to Argentine Gen. Galtieri’s attack on the Falklands in 1982 and Saddam Hussein’s entry into Kuwait in the summer of 1990, there are plenty of examples of weak states attacking countries who have alliances or friends far stronger than the attacker. Why then do the Putins of the past and present try something so shortsighted—as the Obama administration has characterized the Ukraine gambit? 

Answer? Strength is in the eye of the attacker.

What might prove to be demonstrably stupid in the future, or even seems foolish in the present, may not necessarily be so clear to the attacker. The perception, not the reality, of relative strength and weakness is what guides aggressive states.

Obama looks to logic, reason, and morality in his confusion over why Putin did something that cannot be squared away on any rational or ethical calculators.

Putin, however, has a logic of his own. American intervention or non-intervention in particular crises is not just the issue for Putin. Instead he sees fickleness and confusion in American foreign policy. He has manipulated and translated this into American impotence and thus reigns freely on his borders.

Red lines in Syria proved pink. Putin’s easily peddled his pseudo-WMD removal plan for Syria. America is flipping and flopping and flipping in Egypt. Missile defense begat no missile defense with the Poles and Czechs. Lead from behind led to Benghazi and chaos. Deadlines and sanctions spawned no deadlines and no sanctions with Iran. Then there was the reset with Russia. Obama’s predecessors, not his enemies were blamed. Iraq was cut loose. We surged only with deadlines to stop surging in Afghanistan. Loud civilian trials were announced for terrorists and as quietly dropped. Silly new rubrics appeared like overseas contingency operations, workplace violence, man-caused disasters, a secular Muslim Brotherhood, jihad as a personal journey, and a chief NASA mission being outreach to Muslims.

Putin added all that up. He saw a pattern of words without consequences, of actions that are ephemeral and not sustained, and so he concluded that a weaker power like Russia most certainly can bully a neighbor with access to stronger powers like the United States. For Putin and his ilk, willpower and his mythologies about Russian moral superiority are worth more than the hardware and data points of the West.

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TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections; Russia
KEYWORDS: russia; ukraine; vdh; victordavishanson; viktoryanukovich; yuliatymoshenko
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To: 1rudeboy

One thing is certain, Putin has Crimea and we have speeches.


21 posted on 03/20/2014 4:07:08 PM PDT by AEMILIUS PAULUS (It is a shame that when these people give a riot)
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To: 1rudeboy

I think these comparisons to Hitler are disingenuous at best and outright propaganda by the US/EU. Putin is not looking to shove millions of people into a furnace nor is he doing much more the a little flexing of Russian muscle along his border (which given Russia’s history they have good reason to worry about).

If you really want to look at who’s been the stirring up trouble then look no further than the US as far as stirring up wars and international discord. The Arab spring, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. Our motives have not and never will be “pure” in any international conflict other than “purely for the US self interest” (or in the case of Iraq a Bush grudge match). Which is the same as any other country, people may like to think that we are different but based on the evidence we are not.

Given all that it’s about time the EU realized that the US will not always be aligned with their interests and start building up their own military, otherwise they are in for a very disappointing lesson in international relations.


22 posted on 03/20/2014 4:08:35 PM PDT by trapped_in_LA
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To: FatherofFive

Crimera has been part of Russia longer than Texas has been part of the United States. Kruschev, a Ukraneian, gave it back to Ukraine in the 50’s


Sorry, what part of Crimea is Kherson? Putin has Russian soldiers there now laying land mines.

What other countries besides Ukraine is this tin pot czar free to invade? We need a scorecard, FRiend.


23 posted on 03/20/2014 4:11:08 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: lodi90

“Putin invaded his neighbor with his sissy boy army wearing masks and no insignia. That is not strength. That is faggotry.”

Crimea voted. You first suggest that the vote was strong armed by Putin’s forces, then you refer to his forces as a sissy boy army.

Sounds like you are arguing with your self...


24 posted on 03/20/2014 4:12:26 PM PDT by babygene ( .)
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To: 1rudeboy
Good article...I especially like:

Putin...saw a pattern of words without consequences, of actions that are ephemeral and not sustained, and so he concluded that a weaker power like Russia most certainly can bully a neighbor with access to stronger powers like the United States.

This is what I said from the beginning....when there is a power vacuum, something will fill that space. It won't just remain empty.

Team Obama announced troop reductions to below WWII levels, Putin's already-green light grew even greener.

I further think this weakness in American policy is even PART of the promised "flexibility" that was whispered to Medvedev.

But it isn't just Russian relations....BO is on a mission to weaken our nation's status in the world from EVERY angle. Why else would he engineer and increase in our debt burden two or three fold? Why else would he engineer a demoralization and perversion in our military? Why else would he foist upon the American people a socialized, unpopular and unworkable healthcare law?

He wants all this to happen because he hates America.

Three things are the enemy of the left:
(true, classical) Christianity,
(original intent interpretation of) the Constitution, and
(free market) Capitalism.

25 posted on 03/20/2014 4:13:47 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: trapped_in_LA
If only Washington had been nicer to the Russians after the fall of the Berlin Wall. If only the west had not humiliated Moscow after the break-up of the Soviet Union. Surely we can see now what a provocation it was to allow the former vassal states of the Soviet empire to exercise their democratic choice to join the community of nations? And what of permitting them to shelter under Nato’s security umbrella and to seek prosperity for their peoples in the European Union? Nothing, surely, could have been more calculated to squander the post-cold-war peace.

Financial Times.

Oops, sorry . . . that article was about the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia.
26 posted on 03/20/2014 4:13:56 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: PhilDragoo
Obama used CIA and NATO to empower the Muslim Brotherhood, to replace secular regimes with Islamist ones in the "Arab Spring"

And utterly destroyed an entire country - which is now in the grip of a bunch of fanatic islamist warlords fighting over the carcass

27 posted on 03/20/2014 4:15:26 PM PDT by Fred Nerks (fair dinkum)
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To: babygene
Crimea voted.

the outcome of the Crimean vote—93 percent in favor of joining Russia—was as predictable as it is illegitimate. According to Vorobiov, even though there are not as many Russian supporters in Crimea as has been reported by the Russian media, the local Crimean population has no access to news sources other than broadcasts coming out of Russia. All Ukrainian and foreign media have been shut down.

The outcome, noted Fedets, “was already decided.” There were only two questions on the ballot: (1) “Do you want to be part of Russia?” and (2) “Do you want to be independent?” The ballot did not offer the option of remaining a part of Ukraine.

FR link


28 posted on 03/20/2014 4:16:34 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

“the local Crimean population has no access to news sources other than broadcasts coming out of Russia.”

So... Is our vote here as predictable as it is illegitimate too because the liberal side’s control of the media?

In Crimean as well as here, people get the government they deserve...


29 posted on 03/20/2014 4:25:09 PM PDT by babygene ( .)
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To: ProudFossil
“Why do weak nations like Russia provoke stronger ones like the United States? is wrong. It should be “Why do strong leaders like Putin provoke weaker ones like Obama?”.”

It's also a matter of what circumstances we've gotten ourselves into as a nation. Prolonged recession, multiple long-term military interventions with little to show for it (after we mismanaged things during the Obama Presidency), political polarization at home, and a progressive decrease in respect abroad. It's hard to play hard ball when you have those things in the background.

30 posted on 03/20/2014 4:25:34 PM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: babygene
So... Is our vote here as predictable as it is illegitimate too because the liberal side’s control of the media?

Where do you get your news?

31 posted on 03/20/2014 4:26:17 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy
Obama, of course, rejects the notion that his own mixed signals have emboldened Putin to try something stupid that he might otherwise not have.

There were no mixed signals. The whole world knows that Obama is a bed-wetting wimp who will do nothing in the face of aggression other than hide under the sheets!

32 posted on 03/20/2014 4:29:49 PM PDT by DakotaGator (Weep for the lost Republic! And keep your powder dry!!)
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To: Cyber Liberty

2/3


33 posted on 03/20/2014 4:30:17 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: 1rudeboy

And since there seems to be little to no international outrage about Crimea being annexed by Russia, we should do that with the northerly 5 miles of Mexico and use it as a booby-trapped DMZ with multiple layers of walls and concertina wire. All the Rio Grande river will be ours and no foreign nation can say “boo” about it if they didn’t also speak up about the Crimean situation. And if they do pipe up, we cut off whatever foreign aid we might be sending them.


34 posted on 03/20/2014 4:32:37 PM PDT by Two Kids' Dad (((( ))))
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To: ps

oops, nevermind, i see .. lol


35 posted on 03/20/2014 4:32:55 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: 1rudeboy

Power in the hands of cowards and traitors means nothing.

In the case of Obama, we have a twofer.

He is not working in the interests of the US.

Time people realize that and understand how much worse it could be in 3 years.

He is not, and will not, work in the interest of Americans. Face it.


36 posted on 03/20/2014 4:34:36 PM PDT by dforest
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To: 1rudeboy

“Where do you get your news?”

I’m a news junkie... So your question is irrelevant (I’ve been a member here since 1998). A large majority get it from the MSM, and it’s all slanted.


37 posted on 03/20/2014 4:35:16 PM PDT by babygene ( .)
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To: tomkat

Right. (I knew *you* would know. I was wondering about that other guy making all the big impeachment talk.) Now, how many Rats would vote to convict, even if there is a video tape of Obastard strangling a small child to death? One? Two? Maybe even three! We would need about 16, assuming we get rid of Lindsy Graham and John McCain.


38 posted on 03/20/2014 4:35:33 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (H.L. Mencken: "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.")
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To: FatherofFive

“Crimera has been part of Russia longer than Texas has been part of the United States. Kruschev, a Ukraneian, gave it back to Ukraine in the 50’s”

You are a fount of disinformation.

(1) Crimea, not “Crimera”

(2) The Crimea has been a part of the Ottoman Empire/Turkey longer than the existence of the Russian Empire. So, by your reasoning possession of the Crimea, a Tatar name by the way, should revert to Turkey under the still operative treaty the Ottoman Empire the right to reclaim the Crimea from Russia under the current circumstances.

(3) Kruschev was a Russian and not a Ukrainian. It was Kruschev’s wife who was a Ukrainian.

(4) Kruschev did not “give” the Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR, but he did transfer the Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR for a variety of reasons, including the exchange of the Crimea in part as reparations for the millions of Ukrainians murdered by the Russians and the theft and despoiling of Ukrainian properties and rights under Communist law.


39 posted on 03/20/2014 4:38:09 PM PDT by WhiskeyX ( provides a system for registering complaints about unfair broadcasters and the ability to request a)
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To: Vaquero

We have an affirmative action type Hitler in the White Hut. Hitler didn’t or wouldn’t have needed a teleprompter as he could recite a half hour speech practically from memory (a gift he shared with Lenin).


40 posted on 03/20/2014 4:40:58 PM PDT by Stepan12
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