Posted on 03/18/2014 5:14:03 AM PDT by blam
This Is The Most Plausible Theory For The Plane's Disappearance We've Heard Yet...
Henry Blodget
Mar. 18, 2014, 6:01 AM
Over the past 10 days, investigators and observers have come up with ever-more elaborate theories for what might have happened to Malaysia Airways Flight 370.
What was originally assumed to have been a tragic mid-air explosion or mechanical problem soon bloomed into a criminal investigation of a meticulously planned hijacking, commandeering, or otherwise stealing of a fully loaded commercial 777 in mid-air.
The perpetrator(s) knew the plane so well, one of the latest theories goes, that they climbed through a trap door outside the cockpit to reach circuit breakers necessary to shut down one of the communication's systems. They shut down the transponder. They made the plane disappear and fooled the world into thinking it had crashed. They flew one of two "arcs" for 7 hours — a "southern route" over the Indian Ocean on which, eventually, they crashed the plane in the ocean in a complicated suicide, and a "northern route" in which, perhaps, they slipped past land-based radar, flew to a destination in central Asia, and landed, perhaps preparing to use the plane again soon for a terrorist attack or other mission. This latter plan was executed so flawlessly, one observer theorized, that Flight 370 slipped in behind another commercial airliner for much of the route so as not to be noticed on radar.
The pilots' houses have been searched. Terrorist connections have been probed. Passenger backgrounds and possible motives have been scrutinized. And still, 10 days after the plane disappeared, we know nothing.
Perhaps that's because we're overthinking it.
A few days ago, a former pilot named Chris Goodfellow articulated an entirely different theory on Google+.
This theory fits the facts.
And it's the most plausible yet:
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Unless the fire knocked out communications?
Yes but “smoke in the cockpit” takes 1 second to transmit.
I’ve personally transmitted this myself while turning back to the airfield without ATC permission.
Fotunately, they granted permission to land any runway without my declaring an emergency.
Not saying that you are wrong here.
No. There is no switch to issue a May Day. All we have is a radio, which may have been disabled with the transponder. There is also a transponder code for emergency, but again, n avionics fire could easily have taken both those out.
“Oxygen in the cabin is on 12 minutes oxygen generators. Flight deck has a separate system with bottled O2”
I meant that the pilots would have used the oxygen available if they were in danger of losing consiousness from smoke on the flight deck. At that point the risk of fire intensifying from the use of an oxygen mask is low compared to dead pilots.
I’m no where near an aviation expert, but I’ve read/heard this shadowing theory several times. I don’t think they have to be that close to masquerade as another airliner.
It is not about time, it is priority. We don’t talk if we are busy with extremely important procedures. A fire in the flight deck will often have zero indication to ATC until well into the emergency procedure. I know, I train this scenario.
Unless the fire took out the communication first
I’ll ask the obvious question: Has a tire ever caught fire on takeoff? And a followup: Why would the Captain NOT radio “Smoke in the cabin”?
I read folks saying that he’s “too busy” to declare an emergency. That is ridiculous on its face. Flying a plane IS multitasking.
Do a google search of the Indian Ocean. Take a look at how big it is.
Note to future commercial aircraft designers. If a situation occurs where a pilot cannot make a distress call, have doomsday switch on a panel on it's own dedicated circuit with it's own aux power supply that when hit sends a distress signal. Would have thought that would have been available.
Not buying the burning tire theory. 777 are very sophisticated planes. Blown tire, low air pressure tire, slow smoldering fire. All kinds of sensor triggered alarms would be going off during and right after take off.
It does seem very plausible.
But I’m sticking with my theory that it entered Indian airspace, and thinking a Paki Jihadist attack was underway the Indians shot it down. Then, after realizing it was a jetliner filled with ChiCom citizens, they decided to engage in a cover-up, with which we are likely helping them in order to prevent an explosion of tensions in Asia.
There were reports from the relatives. some said they were calling the passenger’s phone and it didn’t go to voice mail - just kept ringing. That’s explainable.
But there were some that said they were getting calls from the passengers, the relative would pick up the phone, and no one was on the other end. This was within hours of the flight vanishing.
How might smoke from the burning tyre enter the cockpit and cabin if the cockpit and cabin are pressurised, and the landing gear bay is not?
1. Why no "MAYDAY" call? Perhaps it was given and no one heard it?
2. I think pilots in the cockpit have emergency oxygen masks with bottled oxygen that would allow them to operate even with smoke in the cockpit.
3. If the pilots were incapacitated and the plan on autopilot, why did it climb to 45,000 feet and then dive? It should've continued on the same path and altitude.
Oh well, this has given the 0bama regime some cover for their foreign policy blunders (Ukraine and Venezuela - when was the last time you heard about Venezuela?), but American's attention spans are growing shorter, so it's time to move on.
I heard some "expert" on BBC last night who questioned the accuracy of that alleged fact. Bottom line is that the facts are all up in the air (sorry).
Heard an FBI guy on Hannity say he ascribed this to chaos and incompetence from Malaysia.
And, fwiw - Hannity was at his absolute worst trying to report the story. He was trying to say that the Captain was emotionally distraught over the politician who had been on trial. I studiously avoid Hannity - I try not not have my intelligence insulted if I can help it. But, I bit on a Tweet from Greta.
This would account for that left turn, but what about the other turns that were made after that, plus the ascent to ~40k feet?
It would also explain the garbled message when other air raft tried to contact them
Doesn’t account for the changes in elevation, although I presume an ascent to very high altitude could be an attempt to snuff out a fire.
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