Posted on 03/17/2014 5:10:35 AM PDT by rktman
As a cyber security professional, I spend much of my time thinking about how to defeat systems in order prevent others from doing the same. And several years ago, my team performed vulnerability assessments on air traffic control systems for the FAA. But I am no aviator. So to speculate on what may have become of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, I engaged in conversation with a commercial pilot who flies for a major American airline. Between the two of us, we arrived at some theories on the mystery surrounding the missing plane.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.townhall.com ...
1. Hijack a 777
2. Turn off tracking devices
3. Kill the passengers
4. Hide the plane
5.
6. Blow up America/Malaysia/Israel/Other!
How do they get the plane from where it is in hiding to wherever the explosives are without detection (or take the explosives to the plane, whichever) and how do they attack the target without tipping their hand in time for the plot to be thwarted?
And how are the bodies disposed without arousing suspicion? Even a dumping in the ocean would eventually draw sharks and float to the surface.
That’s exactly what happened.
I keep thinking about how the 911 hijackers did at least one dry run that we know of (i.e, James Woods reported seeing the hijackers on Flight 11 a week before), and it would be interesting to know if the men using the stolen passports, (or any other passengers, for that matter), show up on security videos from previous flights.
Of course, it’s possible that some of the passengers may take that flight on a regular basis, but still...I’d sure be scrutinizing previous security videos..!!
bfl
That is where I stopped reading this expert analysis.
The “transponder” is a device that responds to radar. The air traffic controllers assign a number to each flight that the pilot manually dials into the unit. The ground radar system now identifies that number with that aircraft (along with heading, altitude, speed, etc.). The transponder doesn’t send out a signal until it receives a “hit” from ground radar then it sends back a ping with the information.
Someone apparently didn’t just “change the channel,” they simply turned that system off.
What about the report yesterday that the pilot’s wife and kids moved out of the family house the day before take off. If true, that’s pretty stunning. They must be located.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh370-3248001
We have a place and it appears Google has not been there in Years...like 10+
FWIW, Malaysian authorities said yesterday that the report was untrue.
Somebody knows the truth, but they’re not telling it.
I find a more plausable theory:
1. Pilots, who I believe are Muslim, orchestrated the whole thing from the beginning.
2. They had turned off the first transponder shortly before or shortly after saying “good night
3. They flew to 45000 to kill off the passengers.
4. They diverted West.
5. 50/50 % chance that plane is in th ocean somewhere or has landed.
Early on considered whether or not flying the aircraft in ground effect would offer any advantage toward stealth or range like the Ekranoplane. For the 777 drag is much higher near sea level vice 30k levels at cruise and came to the conclusion fuel consumption allowed 5 hours duration.
>>The map based on the engine data ‘ping’ is very curious...<<
I saw an explanation for this somewhere that made sense. The ping to the satellite can be used to tell the distance to the airline but not the direction. I’d guess it has to do with the time elapsed somehow, but I’m not sure of that. The report said that they could then use the distance of the satellite from the earth and calculate the angle from the satellite to the airline. That would be simple geometry once you know the two distances, but all you would know is the distance from the satellite which is why you see the two bands displayed. The plane was somewhere along the bands in either direction from its last known location at the last ping.
The bands are the circumference of the circle with the satellite at its center, and the length of the bands are determined by how far the plane could have flown during the time from its last known location as determined by radar.
Actually, they also have more information from those pings, but I haven’t seen a discussion of it. Each ping up until the last would have also generated similar bands, although shorter because the plane wouldn’t have gone as far yet. If the plane was flying toward the satellite, the band for the next ping would be closer to the satellite, and vice versa, so it would be possible to deduce the some information about the direction of the plane between each ping, although not whether it was going left or right relative to the satellite’s position, just whether it was moving toward or away from it.
It appears to be a coincidence that the published bands cross over the last known location of the plane, by the way. Had the plane continued toward China, for example, the bands would be much further out from the satellite’s location.
I
Interesting map - thanks
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/17/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?hp&_r=1
My guess after hearing the following (assuming it’s true)
1. The pilot was intensely interested in Malaysian politics.
2. He was highly sympathetic to the recently convicted opposition leader.
3. He was so highly sympathetic and so intensely interested that he attended the trial of the opposition leader and witnessed the outcome in which the court overturned a previous acquital, viewed by many to be political retribution.
4. The trial ended on March 7th.
5. The pilot, an otherwise normal guy according to friends and relatives, got behind the controls of a Boeing 777 on March 8th.
Again, assuming the above is all true, my guess is that he lost it, had absolutely no plan in mind other than revenge against the government, overcame the co-pilot, or simply sent him out for coffee and locked the cabin door, then took the plane to 45K feet to disable everyone else aboard, then to the deck to avoid detection, then flew around in a rage trying to decide what to do next.
Eventually, the realization of what he’d done set in, and the plane is now at the bottom of the ocean as he added suicide to his list of things he really hadn’t planned to do that day. If he had the knowledge at hand, he might even have decided to put the plane down where Malaysian authorities would be least likely to find it, i.e., in the deepest part of the ocean he could locate.
This is consistent with most of what we do know, including the fact that we can’t find the plane anywhere on land, that no one has taken responsibility, that no passengers or crew have come up as terrorist suspects, and that the Malaysian authorities were initially reluctant to share much information.
Of course, if he wasn’t at the trial, the above guess is on a par with all the other baloney “experts” have been putting out. It’s a hoot when two of them are on the same show, one certain that the plane is hidden on land somewhere, the other certain that it’s in the ocean.
Sounds feasible. A nut pilot, wouldn’t be the first time.
In addition, rage at Malaysian authorities would explain why he apparently turned the plane around and headed back toward Malaysia. He might well have been considering using the plane as a weapon at that point, but then finally settled on suicide instead.
These calculations may have come from individual probability formulas for each scenario presented (and perhaps others). The calculations therefore are each dependent on the accuracy, quantity, and type of distribution of existing or hypothetical data, etc. There may also be many unknown, unknowns. These calculations may not sum to 100% unless combined into one formula equaling 100%. Still would be subject to a variety of variability’s.
Probable theories:
1) A Pilot or a crew involved as they had access and knowledge
2) Attempted hijacking that went bad.
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