Crimea: Russia’s Next Afghanistan?

New York Times Guest Op-Ed Contibutor ^ | MARCH 3, 2014 | By OLGA DUKHNICH

[Veristhorne]

SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — Since Saturday, the headquarters of the government of Crimea — an autonomous region of Ukraine — have been occupied by special forces whose uniforms are unmarked but whose identity is a mystery to no one here. ... The dominant mood here in Crimea – even among local Russian-speaking intellectuals who have been vocal in defense of their linguistic rights and cultural identity – is not joy, but fear.

The majority of Crimean Russians did not want to see Russian tanks and troops in the streets. They understand that if the occupation continues, it may undermine their livelihood. Crimea is a tourist destination; the incomes and well-being of many of its inhabitants depend on revenues from the peak travel season, when vacationers come to the Black Sea for relaxation. They cannot live on rations from the Russian military. And they know that Crimea could not be economically sustained without the rest of Ukraine, which supplies the region with electricity and water. {more at link above}

...

[Veristhorne]

Hard to believe 300,000 returned Crimean Tartars would want to be absorbed back into Russia, Hmm 15000 Speznaz, 300,000 Crim Tatars, who would you bet on? If you give them ponies and arrows, I'll take the Tatars anyday. For the 50% of Russians that supposedly favor invading Ukraine; was that a CNN cafeteria or a Pravda poll? The dark Ukrainian soil is rich with the blood of anti-Communist freedom fighters from the Civil War in the 20's, the millions who died in the Holodomor terror-famine of the 30's, the tens of thousands that died fighting Communism in the 40's and in the gulags. It saddens me to hear the commentators talk about this orchestrated tragedy with terms like "pipeline," "warm water port," and "no US strategic interest."

[Husker24]

Not gonna happen

[allendale]

The majority of the population in Crimea is clearly pro-Russian. That is why this takeover has been bloodless. There are no protests or violence directed against the Russian military in Crimea. If Putin overplayed his hand and moved into eastern Ukraine then there would be violence. Comparing Muslim Afghanistan to Russian speaking Crimea is unsophisticated nonsense.

[nickcarraway]

Sorry, but I don’t think this is comparable. Crimea was part of Russia until the 50s, when they, for some reason, transferred it to the Ukraine. Right or not, it was probably going to revert back to Russia.

[RC one]

There are many compelling reasons to allow the world situation to further develop along its present course as opposed to rushing in and trying to alter that course through open warfare. that's my opinion anyways.

[Veristhorne]

The reason it’s bloodless is because of good discipline by the Ukrainian army, got nothing to do with civilians. Putin would love to have them fire the “first shot.” Ukrainians outsmarted him, and if they play it right, could be big PR disaster if Crimeans continue fleeing, for economic, political, or security reasons, leaving a lot of Muslim Tatars and a few ethnic Russians in the Southeast corner.
Putin gets nothing he didn’t have before, and looks like a turd at the opera in world opinion. His personal wealth took a $5 billion hit on Monday (12% of $40 billion) I think that’s why he calmed down a little.

[Veristhorne]

Right on. The peaceful intent of the Ukranians is well- demonstrated in the language of the 1994 Budaest accord, filed at the UN and signed by Clinton, where she voluntarily gave up her nuclear weapons, in return for promises for US, GB, and Russia to respect her sovereignty. (There is no binding treaty, and we have no obligation to get involved militarily) Military involvement by us would be foolish,just ask Winston & Rudyard how that worked out. The Black Sea Fleet is a silly prestige item, neutered by the Dardanelles, Suez, Gibralter, only good for local bullying. Let the goose cook. Thanks for the comment.

[BlackVeil]

You have a point there, and I am uneasy about the probable affiliations of any radical militants among the Crimean Tatars. They would link up very fast with Saudi Arabia and the other al-Qaida backers.

Afghanistan used to be a Russian problem, but now is an American problem. Who wants the same recipe in Crimea?

[Pollster1]

Geography, culture, and history matter. The NYT is clueless - as usual.

[Justa]

I agree with your analysis. Those unfamiliar with history are ignorant of the undercurrents which drive this situation. They post nonsense such as “Crimea was part of Russia until the 50s” without knowing the context, method or meaning of Russia’s presence in the area and what the “Russian Crimea” really is.

As you pointed out the Crimean people care most about the local tourism industry which they all put aside their differences to make a go of. If one ethnicity starts taking sides and supporting external interests and occupation then the whole thing unravels and everyone loses. Yes, I agree Putin will be blamed all around for “losing Crimea” in one fashion or another.

[listenhillary]

Russia has a lot of natural gas pipelines crossing Ukraine. A good chunk of their economy and influence over Europe depends on the pipelines. The people tossed out of office the Putin backed leader. That leader did have support if we can believe the election totals from the 2004 and 2010 elections. An obviously divided nation even if there were election shenanigans. The 2010 elections seemed to show the same divide, this one shows percentages and is a little more useful.

[Timber Rattler]

Wishful thinking. The Crimean Tatars will do exactly what they are told by the Rooskis, like they have always done ever since Catherine the Great conquered them in 1774.

[cmj328]

You may be right. The pro-Russian soldiers in Crimea are starting to look twitchy. The autonomy referendum set for March 30 will be very important.

Another tragedy is the importing of Western anti-Christian culture into every state that affiliates with the EU. Ukrainian membership in the EU is another form of annexation.

[bert]

That piece is a joke written by a fool with access to too much ink

[98ZJ USMC]

Wishful thinking from the Volkischer Beobacter.

[McGruff]

[LowTaxesEqualsProsperity]

Unbelievable some of the garbage that is appearing in the media.

Crimea voted by over 70% for full independence from Ukraine a while back, and Kiev rejected it. Hence, it became an autonomous republic within Ukraine.

[LowTaxesEqualsProsperity]

Don’t know if this is true:
http://rt.com/news/ashton-maidan-snipers-estonia-946/

But if it is, the Kiev regime will collapse.

[xzins]

Crimea is so long under Russia — since the 1700’s at least — that they aren’t going to be remotely close to what Afghan was to the USSR.

[Prospero]

Oh, come on. To the "eternal working man" of the Crimea, hoards of them displaced there originally by Stalin eighty years ago, their children forced into Soviet schooling, are likely less inclined toward Kiev than they are Moscow. Most are skeptical their lives would change one way or another.

This is all about Putin not wanting E.U. bureaucrats controlling the ground, its pipelines and the airspace between the Kremlin and Sevastopol.