It’s not going to a Weaver scenario. They have so many tools at their disposal. Why go to violent confrontation when that is the most likely to result in negative publicity?
It’ll be something like one day a cop pulls you over for a minor driving infraction (probably fabricated).
They put you in cuffs and execute a search warrant on your now empty house.
They find a mag or whatever, seize all your guns, charge you, let you out on bail.
Soon you end up as a convicted felon. Now if you try to acquire weapons, you are facing much more serious charges and the cops/DA don’t have to even bring up the original mag seizure, so they’ll be no sympathy from the public on that score.
Plus you’ve got all the other problems that go along with being a felon. Read “Three Felonies a Day”. They will follow, harass, hound you with impunity and pile up more charges. Plus you’ll have to deal with fines, possibly lose your house, car, child visitation rights, whatever.
None of this beyond the original charge/trial/conviction will make the news. Nobody will care. Nobody will help. At least that is the tyrant’s plan, and experience tells me they are probably right.
That is the likely scenario.
I believe that your scenario is how they will do it. They know that time is on their side and the American public is becoming more slave oriented each day.