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I think there are 9 now that lean in our favor at least by a little. SD, WV, MT, AR, AK, LA, NC, CO, MI. We SHOULD win those, doesn’t mean we will get them all but it looks good on paper right now. CO and MI are the trickiest, the rest are Republican states.

Beyond them, not much. The Iowa race leans rat due to second tier GOP candidates, I don’t know which one to back. After that I consider the rest longshots.

NH is supposedly in play if Scott Brown. As I’ve said before I don’t like that for several reasons. He would have won the recent special election from MA and had a good chance at winning a full term this year before getting booted out in 2020. An in MA he’s acceptable, he compares favorably to say Mark Kirk who’s from a state not as liberal as MA. Theoretically we can do better in NH. At least Judd Gregg/Ayotte level.

But since the NH GOP is so pathetic they can’t find a meaningful candidate from their own state are reduced to BEGGING him to run, I won’t object. The amount of time he’s been dickering though, I doubt he’ll enter the race. If he enters put it with Iowa.

Virginia, I’m glad we’re running a somebody but it’s not really competitive right now. The potential exists but I wouldn’t expect it. Hewitt ranks these in order and has Virginia in 6th place ahead of Alaska, MONTANA ( which is top 3 or 4), Colorado and Louisiana (and Iowa which is only lean rat). That’s flat out retarded Hugh, sorry.

Minnesota, Frankenberry sucks, even say a T-Paw would beat him or Coleman but these 2nd tier candidates don’t inspire confidence.

“A lot of freepers says Kurt Bills was a disaster, and he did get crushed in the November election. But honestly, looking back on it, I don’t see how anyone else could have been an improvement. “

He did HISTORICALLY bad for a MN Senate race. Given that, I would have preferred anyone else. Paulbots are losers, period. Voters don’t like them. If McFadden is a lib, forget him. Jim Abeler is Paulbot like Bills I think. State Senator Julianne Ortman looks like the best bet to me if indeed McFadden can’t be trusted (and I wouldn’t be inclined to trust him).

Oregon, not often mentioned even as we discuss the lower chance races. It’s a ratish state but not out of range. Potential if a candidate does a good job. There appears to be 3 serious candidates to my eye. This doctor (Monica Wehby) that Hewitt mentions, State Rep. Jason Conger and former Linn County GOP Chair Jo Rae Perkins.

Not mentioned, New Mexico. Chances there aren’t much worse than Oregon I’d say. Former State GOP. Chair Allen Weh is running against the other Udall.

Illinois, not on Hugh’s list nor should it be. No one knows much about Truax. He’s not “pro-life enough” Phil? Well he never called pro-lifers the AMERICAN TALIBAN like Oberweis did in 2002, did he?

Bottom line, perennial candidate Oberdouche has a zero percent chance at winning. I don’t care if anyone thinks he’s more conservative than Truax on paper. And frankly I would question that assertion. He’s good at throwing red meat, that doesn’t mean he’d back it up. He’s “held an office” for all of a year after losing several races. Now he’s using that lone victory in a safe seat State Senate race as a stepping stone at the first opportunity, pathetic. The only opponent he was effective against was a conservative Republican State Senator whom he SLANDERED in a congressional special election primary. He then lost the GE, (Hastert’s seat, humiliating the party) and got his a$s handed to him in the November rematch.

To reiterate, he cannot win because he’s a lousy failure of a candidate. I’d give Truax at least a 1% chance. 1>0. That’s it.
for all of a year after losing several races. Now he