I would wager, I don’t know, a 45% chance at victory? Think that’s too rosy?
How would you size up the IL seats in terms of takeover likelihood?
We’ll have to see how the races develop, and I haven’t really analyzed all the candidates, but at this stage I’d rank the Dem-held seats in the following order of likelihood of GOP takeover:
1. IL-12 (Enyart): Downstate district gave Romney 48.2%, trending Republican, should see lower black turnout in East St. Louis area, Enyart is a freshman and liberal even on social issues (his predecessor, Jerry Costello, was fairly conservative on social issues), conservative GOP state Representative Mike Bost is a credible challenger (albeit a bit controversial due to his “rant” as a state legislator) and won’t have to worry about a primary (no one else filed), there’s a Green Party candidate who may take votes away from Enyart. As of Sept. 30, Enyart had outraised Bost by $588,000 to $78,000, so Bost needs to get moving on fundraising. I’m optimistic about picking up this seat (60% odds?), which the Democrats failed to protect adequately thinking that Costello wouldn’t retire.
2. IL-10, Lake and Cook Counties, 41.1% for Romney, Democrat Schneider is a freshman who barely beat then-Congressman Dold in 2012 (50.5%-49.5%) with Obama on the ballot, Dold is the only Republican running and has been competitive in fundraising. I think that Dold’s odds of winning are slightly above 50% (maybe 55%?).
3. IL-17: Rock Island/Moline/Peoria/Rockford gerrymander, 40.6% for Romney, freshman incumbent Cheri Bustos (who is no slouch as a candidate), Republican ex-Congressman Bobby Schilling is a good candidate but needs to improve his fundraising, Schilling only Republican running (Paulbot dropped out), turnout will be better for us this time. Schilling surprised me by beating Hare comfortably in 2010, so while on paper Bustos appears to have a big advantage, I’d give us 45% odds of winning.
4. IL-08: Cook/DuPage/Kane CD that gave Romney 40.9%, freshman incumbent Duckworth is far from impressive as a campaigner, political newcomer Manju Goel has raised money and I suspect can raise a lot more (particularly in the Indian-American community). Tough district, but with the GOP gubernatorial candidate (whoever he ends up being) running strongly, right now I’d give us a 40% chance of winning.
5. IL-11, Cook, DuPage, Will, Kane and Kendall CD, 40.6% for Romney, fairly strong RAT incumbent in Bill Foster (a freshman, but used to represent a GOP-leaning district a bit to the west), GOP primary among state rep Darlene Senger, Grundy County Board Member Chris Balkeme (Grundy County is just outside the district) and a few political newcomers who haven’t raised any money. Very tough race for us, but our gubernatorial nominee should do well here, so I’d give us 30% odds of winning (maybe 35% if Senger is our nominee, but at most 25% for Balkema (who doesn’t have Senger’s electoral experience and, being from Grundy County, may just as well be from Rock Island for many Chicago suburbanites).
6. IL-03, white Anglo Catholic neighborhoods in South Chicago and suburbs to the west, 42.6% for Romney, entrenched, socially conservative Democrat incumbent in Dan Lipinski, unknown GOP candidates with no money. If this seat was open, or if a good Republican candidate was running , it would be potentially competitive, but as it is we could only win if there’s some sort of black-swan event. At most 5% chance of winning the seat even if our gubernatorial carries the district (which is possible, but not likely).
What do you all think?