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CD-8, Walsh ran ahead of Romney which surprised the hell out of me given his difficulties. Makes me think the district is more amenable than the Obama percentage would indicate (When you run ahead of normal performance like Obama did in IL and CA, anomalies can occur, there’s no way that CD 10 is actually marginally more conservative than CD 8) and that Suckworth is something of a paper tiger. I suspect Walsh would have held on under the old lines. Goel was recruited to run by the “evil” Pete Sessions so I’m surprised I’m not seeing tons of people bash her and tout her opponent. If Auh2o’s financial figures are accurate, that’s not a race, Goel wins and has a good shot in November.

CD-11: Biggert was curbstomped by margin similar to the POTUS blowout, which surprised me given than Dold and Walsh ran appreciably ahead of Romney. I was also surprised by the number of GOP candidates running (5, the most of any seat). From what little I’ve heard I’d tend to go with Chris Balkema over Darlene Stenger. It will be one of them. Not very hopeful for November.

CD-13 I’m not worried about losing in the seat in this midterm despite it’s extreme closeness in the POTUS election (I’d like to know the Bush/Kerry numbers and the Brady/Quinn numbers) It is a competitive district but it’s not gonna turn this time. Go Erika go! This is the most important primary in IL House races. Appointed hack incumbent versus someone who could be a conservative star. There is also a nobody third candidate named Mike Firsching.

CD 16 Kinzinger is disappointing. I so wish conservative Don Manzullo had defeated him in the 2012 battle of incumbants. David Hale, according to Billyboy, has been praiseful of RINO Gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner, which is a negative indication of his (Hale’s) character or intelligence depending on whether he was bribed or fooled or is just the kind of guy who likes to kiss all the a**es so he’s sure he’s covered the one that ends up winning. I would vote AGAINST Kinzinger and thus for Hale if I lived there. But again, if the financials are accurate, that’s not much of a race either.

Don’t forget Bost running against Enyart. I think that’s one we could steal.

Walsh has endorsed Goel in the race for Suckworth’s seat. I think she’ll win.

CD-8, Walsh ran ahead of Romney which surprised the hell out of me given his difficulties. Makes me think the district is more amenable than the Obama percentage would indicate (When you run ahead of normal performance like Obama did in IL and CA, anomalies can occur, there’s no way that CD 10 is actually marginally more conservative than CD 8) and that Suckworth is something of a paper tiger. I suspect Walsh would have held on under the old lines. Goel was recruited to run by the “evil” Pete Sessions so I’m surprised I’m not seeing tons of people bash her and tout her opponent. If Auh2o’s financial figures are accurate, that’s not a race, Goel wins and has a good shot in November.

I heard Walsh worked the district well and probably got points for good constituency service.

And as for the reasons why Walsh los in 2012t, yeah, not paying child support may have been one of them—maybe Republicans in IL-08 shouldn’t have been scouring the unemployment lines or the bankruptcy filings for their nominee. While Duckworth is a scumbag, Walsh has no one to blame for his downfall but his own irresponsibility and dishonesty. He never warned the GOP about his irresponsibility, and then compounded it by lending his campaign money that he could have used to make his child-support payments:

The Republicans basically punted on hunting up a top-flight candidate for this seat in 2010, ironic, as IL-8 was one of IL's most Republican seats for many years. Walsh's win over Melissa Bean came as a big shock.

Impy, have you seen a map of the redrawn IL-08? It doesn’t include any precincts in McHenry or Lake Counties (which used to be the Republican heart of the district). The CD takes in Dem-leaning NW Cook County (but not GOP Barrington and Palatine Townships), Dem-leaning precincts in NE Kane County, and marginal or Dem-leaning NE DuPage County (including the part of Chicago that goes into that county). I would guess that in 2004 Bush got like 45%-47% in the redrawn IL-08; Bush had gotten 56% in the old IL-08. I think that Bush got 43%-45% in the new IL-10, meaning that your hunch probably was correct and the new IL-08 was more Democrat than the new IL-10 only in 2012, not before, but the new IL-08 still has quite the Democrat lean to it, and will be difficult to capture. But then again, Duckworth is a terrible politician, so maybe Goel can let Duckworth defeat herself.