Why experts blew the 2013 hurricane forecasts

Orlando Sentinel ^ | November 25, 2013 | Ken Kaye

[762X51]

Why did all the experts get the hurricane season outlook so wrong?

Because it's impossible to accurately forecast the weather more than 3 days in advance let alone forecast many events many months into the future?

[gundog]

...or maybe the weather is less racist in Obama’s second term.

[Let_It_Be_So]

From the article: “’A combination of conditions acted to offset several climate patterns that historically have produced active hurricane seasons,’ said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane forecaster. ‘As a result, we did not see the large numbers of hurricanes that typically accompany these climate patterns.’”

Translation: We failed in our predictions because, uh, there were some, uh, conditions that, uh, acted to offset.. never mind, we just really didn’t know what we were doing. But you can trust us next time, because we’re the experts and we’re experts because we know what we are doing.

Whaa?

[ROCKLOBSTER]

it's impossible to accurately forecast the weather more than 3 days in advance let alone forecast many events many months into the future

Oh c'mon...

I'll go out on a limb here and predict that the average temperature for the next three months will be much lower than it has been for the last nine months.

Maybe even below freezing at times.

[JPG]

[JPG]

[Cyman]

Ummmmmm.... if somebody looks, they have blown the last 5 or 6 hurricane forecasts not just one.

[Moonman62]

Yet this season, which ends Saturday, saw only 13 named storms,

And these days, they name every little rainstorm that would have been ignored in the past.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

According to ManBearPig, climate change causes extreme weather, so they forecasted extreme weather because they are required to support ManBearPig.

[Venturer]

If they keep guessing sooner or later they will get it right and accept all the credit for it.

[Fire_on_High]

If you’re thinking about the same weatherman I am, he did call the storm of ‘93 correctly...

[a fool in paradise]

Wendy, Stormy, Breezy, is this a weather report or the stage show at a gentlemen’s club?

[nascarnation]

Honest question:

Have they EVER predicted a “below average” season?

If not, then it’s clearly driven by ideology over science.

[chris37]

They aren’t scientists, they are politicists.

They are liars, and they should no longer be employed by us, because we have no need for them.

[JSteff]

The Sun seems to be the main factor here, and seems to be always left out of the discussion.

The can not acknowledge the sun even has any effect because then they need to acknowledge it's power to affect climate at all. They have no computer that can predict it's actions so they do not want to allow for the fact that as it is far outside of the script they have written that says MAN is the biggest effect on climate.

You see they cannot tax the sun, nor will it comply with their edicts on how to exist within their script. In short they would have to admit how small man really is, and how insignificant man is to the whole equation.

The scientists can study the sun and the climate in general, but they can not manage it.. and that causes them to see how small they are. How sad. They spent big bucks to get their university degree's and the sun will not listen to them.

But then neither will the smallest bugs. So really, who is the smallest factor in all these equations?

[pfflier]

They all used the same variables in their prediction models. Groupthink in a PC world is killing real science.

[pfflier]

Now they are getting so desperate they are naming winter storms. It’s like they haven’t figured out it gets cold, snowy and windy in the winter.

[Capt_Hank]

And the worthless, Al Roker still has a job.

[pfflier]

For a real laugh watch the weather channel. They manage to fold climate change into every event.

They always categorize storms as "The worst in XXX years" and they find some idiot who is standing in front of the wreckage saying "I never seen nothing like this in my life".

[nascarnation]

WC was purchased by NBCU, I believe entirely to propagandize the climate change meme.