I think on this specific point, one of our perceptions (yours or mine) regarding the American public as opposed to the American Electorate (not always the same thing) is seriously out of whack. For all I know, it's mine.
Your point that Conservatives "won" the last shutdown due to the budget finally being balanced, welfare reform, and government reform isn't lost on me. It is however "lost" in the public relations battle. So I guess it depends on which front we're talking about, yes?
The last government shutdown while a PR disaster for Republicans did in fact achieve the things above. Still, the public blamed the Republican party for the shutdown, thanks to the lying SOB's in the media.
Those same lying SOB's aren't just in the media anymore - they've intermarried/intermingled with those in power in the White House and Congress. The hatchet job they did on the Republican Party during the last shutdown will pale in comparison to what they'll do this time.
If there were a chance in HELL that Obama would do what Clinton did in the mid-90's (remember: Clinton was a political animal and he was concerned about his "legacy") then I'd say you're right.
Problem is: Obama's a TRUE BELIEVER ala Saul Alinsky. There's no chance Obama will back down, and he has the liberal lamestream propaganda machine on his side.
IMO, this isn't going to be just a PR disaster for the Republican's, it's going to be a slaughter NO MATTER WHAT they do at this point. That's because of -- the willing cowhores in the liberal lamestream media. They do Obama's bidding willingly.
Goebbels would be proud. He had to FORCE the German Media to become his propaganda arm -- these "journalists" seem to line up on their knees at Obama's crotch to do the job. It's disgusting.
My point is so what. We achieved our goals and did not suffer at the polls.
We will never be treated fairly by the media, so why worry about it.
Those same lying SOB's aren't just in the media anymore - they've intermarried/intermingled with those in power in the White House and Congress. The hatchet job they did on the Republican Party during the last shutdown will pale in comparison to what they'll do this time.
How so?
They tried that garbage with the sequester and after a couple months people began to realize nobody got hurt.
The pressure is really on the Rats. As all these huge govt bureaucracies get shut down if people go on with their lives without any great distress people will wonder why we need them in the first place. Govt is the Rat base, not the Pubs.
We all know the media will never report anything accurately. We can either become victims of their negativity in our thinking and actions, or we can ignore them and push forward. The Tea Party elected pols know we want them to do the latter. The rest of the Pubs know we are coming after them next if they don't.
I hope you are wrong, but remember this is an off-year election coming up. The zombies don’t generally show up, and conservatives are broken glass, at least when they feel they have someone worth showing up for. The 95 shutdown occurred before the 96 general election, which featured a charismatic incumbent against bobdole. There are also several other differences between now and 95. The fight in 95 was over something that had no real impact on people’s day to day lives. This does. Finally, most of the senate battles of note are going to be in solidly red states (Cornyn, McConnell, Graham, etc). Upstart republican candidates should do fine in their election (unlike a few years ago, when these upstart — and poor — candidates had to compete in states like Delaware, Nevada, and Alaska — a state which has a very strong GOPe presence).
Back in 95, I knew the Republicans were in trouble, due to one particular poll which showed that the overwhelming majority of people had no idea what the shutdown was about. This allowed it to be portrayed as a temper tantrum by Republicans. As long as people know that the shutdown is over implementation of ObamaCare, the results will not be nearly as bad as in 95.
Will it be a PR disaster? It won’t be pretty, and the media will be exactly as you say. What I question is whether it will have any substantive effect on 2014. Given that we have already boxed in the establishment senators, this marginal effect will be well worth it.
Last time we didn’t have Fox News, as much talk radio, or nearly as much internet. The liberal media doesn’t dominate things as much as they used to.
At the same time, the left is more focused, extremist and efficient than ever. So they can still do well with the power they have even though it’s not quite as dominant. We’d most likely still “lose” the PR battle in the short-term, but if we achieve something concrete the base wants, then we can win the elections in 2014 through higher turnout. They will have some more faith in the party and expect they can and will achieve more with more seats in congress. So losing the PR battle now doesn’t mean much.
One other difference between now and 95: we were coming off a historic blowout. While this was clearly good, it also meant we had a ton of vulnerable freshman, usually in districts that leaned left. Our ratio of safe to vulnerable is much, much better this time around.
Adding all of these factors together (popular incumbent in a general election vs. off-year; identifiable and impactful reason for a showdown vs. inside baseball battle; depression level economy vs. decent economy in 96), and I think people are putting far to much stock in what happened in 95. That really was a perfect storm, and the worst case scenario. All of the dynamics are much more favorable this time around.
Not saying that it will help the Republicans. Just that any damage should be minor.
Nothing new about that. Are you suggesting we start letting what the press says (to their now dwindling audience) forcibly limit how and in what fashion we are able to respond? Obama's breaking laws left and right, but we can't use Constitutionally-protected responses because the media might whine some more?
...the public blamed the Republican party for the shutdown, thanks to the lying SOB's in the media. Those same lying SOB's aren't just in the media anymore - they've intermarried/intermingled with those in power in the White House and Congress. The hatchet job they did on the Republican Party during the last shutdown will pale in comparison to what they'll do this time.
Bring 'em on. As you admitted earlier, a few scars from the media is a small price to pay for getting the policies we need in place. Not to mention I think you're overestimating the power of the mainstream media these days, by claiming they'll do even more damage now, despite the fact their audience numbers, and their influence over them, have by some estimates been cut by 90%.
IMO, this isn't going to be just a PR disaster for the Republican's, it's going to be a slaughter NO MATTER WHAT they do at this point.
In whose eyes are you actually looking at this through? It won't be a slaughter to me, NO MATTER WHAT, or to the tens of millions of other conservatives who support our representative electors finally standing up to the tyranny that's taking place right now. If the media whines a little more than usual, big deal, they've already lost most of their viewers lately anyway, and are only preaching to their own choir.
The biggest problem we have right now, are the defectors in our own ranks, not the typical media wholes who have recently been marginalized.