I hope you are wrong, but remember this is an off-year election coming up. The zombies don’t generally show up, and conservatives are broken glass, at least when they feel they have someone worth showing up for. The 95 shutdown occurred before the 96 general election, which featured a charismatic incumbent against bobdole. There are also several other differences between now and 95. The fight in 95 was over something that had no real impact on people’s day to day lives. This does. Finally, most of the senate battles of note are going to be in solidly red states (Cornyn, McConnell, Graham, etc). Upstart republican candidates should do fine in their election (unlike a few years ago, when these upstart — and poor — candidates had to compete in states like Delaware, Nevada, and Alaska — a state which has a very strong GOPe presence).
Back in 95, I knew the Republicans were in trouble, due to one particular poll which showed that the overwhelming majority of people had no idea what the shutdown was about. This allowed it to be portrayed as a temper tantrum by Republicans. As long as people know that the shutdown is over implementation of ObamaCare, the results will not be nearly as bad as in 95.
Will it be a PR disaster? It won’t be pretty, and the media will be exactly as you say. What I question is whether it will have any substantive effect on 2014. Given that we have already boxed in the establishment senators, this marginal effect will be well worth it.
If Obamacare is truly unpopular in the polls now, then we might even win the PR battle. If Obama has to get up there during a shutdown, he’ll find it hard to avoid admitting the fact that the shutdown is over Obamacare. And if we’ve made it clear that’s the only issue for us, then, removing the personality factors, wouldn’t the public naturally prefer a funded government without Obamacare over a shutdown? If Obamacare is truly unpopular right now. So it would take all Obama’s charisma to turn the public against their natural inclinations. Of course he is good at doing that.