Posted on 09/21/2013 6:05:53 AM PDT by Kaslin
As I watch the latest polls from Germany there are numerous outcomes, none of which will be pleasing to chancellor Angela Merkel, except outright victory by CDU/CSU +- FDP.
If anything but a CDU/CSU +- FDP majority happens, the chancellor will face seriously unwelcome choices.
For example: Reader Bernd pinged me with this comment yesterday "I just watched the last TV discussion. SPD has made it clear that EUROBONDS will be part and parcel of the package, if they come in with a coalition. Merkel was dead set against those up to now. Grand Coalition ??"
Indeed. Recall that Merkel is dead set against Eurobonds. Also recall eurobonds are against the German constitution.
And what is the price to pay for other coalitions?
Grand Coalition or Grand Fantasy?
A close friend continually points out: the German population wants a "Grand Coalition". And I agree with his assessment. But politically speaking, how stable would it be?
That is Merkel's concern, and that is why she is on a public campaign for voters to not split their votes.
But what if that is not good enough?
Latest Polls
Here are the latest polls.
As INSA reports things, there are numerous possibilities.
Give or take a mere 1-2% there are many possibilities.
The only coalition that does not pose serious problems for Merkel is #3: CDU/CSU + FDP.
Mainstream Media Finally Catches On!
I have been talking about these issues since March. On September 19, CNBC finally reports Anti-euro party powers ahead as German elections near.
With just days to go until Germans head to the polls, the likelihood of Chancellor Angela Merkel retaining her crown grows ever larger. But Germany's establishment could still be in for a shock.
On Thursday, the anti-euro Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) hit the 5 percent threshold for the first time that parties need to gain a seat in parliament, according to an INSA poll. The poll suggested Merkel may not be able to re-form her center-right coalition with the liberal FDP.
The poll gave Merkel's CDU/CSU coalition 38 percent of the vote, while the FDP got 6 percent. Their combined 44 percent would not give them a majority in parliament.
If the AfD makes it into parliament and the current liberal coalition partners don't, the party could prove a headache for Merkel. She will be faced with tough talks to form a new "grand" coalition and would have to join forces with Steinbrueck's SPD.
The margin of error on these polls is +-3% and given the 5% threshold, that makes many of the polls useless.
But notice the trend. And the trend by media was to completely ignore the possibility that AfD would make it into parliament.
The secondary trend assumption was that a "Grand Coalition" was likely.
While a "Grand Coalition" is possible, it is not a given, just as I have stated. And if it does happen, it will not be stable, as demand after demand will be placed on Merkel.
Biggest Political Chameleon in History
Of course Merkel could be ready and willing to sell voters straight down the river. Otherwise, some major compromises are in store.
The above discussion assumes that Merkel is really against Eurobonds except as a matter of political expediency. Is she? Or will the biggest political chameleon in history change colors once again?
Barring an outright majority by CDU/CSU + FDP, we may soon find out.
Those great debts really knock me out
They kick the West’s behind
Angela’s blubbery cellulite is hanging out
That EU troika is always on my, my, my, mind
Take me to the Carpathian mountains way down South
Let me foreclose your daddy’s farm
All the way the bankers’ hands are reaching out
Come and grease your comrade’s palm
I’m back in the EUSSR
You don’t know how lucky you are... boy
Back in the EU
Back in the EU
Back in the EUSSR
If anything but a CDU/CSU +- FDP majority happens, the chancellor will face seriously unwelcome choices... "I just watched the last TV discussion. SPD has made it clear that EUROBONDS will be part and parcel of the package, if they come in with a coalition. Merkel was dead set against those up to now. Grand Coalition ??" Indeed. Recall that Merkel is dead set against Eurobonds. Also recall eurobonds are against the German constitution.
If we had a system like that, we’d have 50 parties, and none of them would be willing to join with any other.
Unemployed punk pea (21), Hamburg "The Pirate Party gets my first vote. The pirates are still new in the policy and need support. With the second vote I choose the left, because they have the best arguments."
As you can see Germany has some ignorant voters like we have here
The anger and anxiety about it comes from two issues.
Will the European Central Bank try unlawful backdoor methods to inflate away unpayable debts for poor countries?
Will the German people be required to guarantee the sovereign debt of poor countries if the ECB takes those debts onto its balance sheet?
Merkel uses a lot of unnerving double talk on those two issues, from my perspective.
The solution seems obvious.
Vigorously pledge a “strong Euro” policy and no foreign debt guarantees.
I think the CDU could reach 50% with a platform like that.
The temptation to vote for the outsiders (whoever they are) or fringe candidates with strong convictions (whatever they are) can be pretty strong in young people here or there, and it’s not wholly irrational — though admittedly that tendency has had some bad consequences in German history.
German election ping. The vote is today.
Polling seems to indicate Merkel’s coalition will narrowly fail to win a majority, meaning a likely return to the disgusting coalition with the socialists from her first term.
This is all so provicial, why do we worry about local politics of a non-sovereign state? Tradition I guess.
Long live the EUSSR, up until they run out of other peoples money, of course.
They should build a wall or something. That will definitely keep fortress euro-peons strong.
//sarc
re-ping.
[snip] If anything but a CDU/CSU +- FDP majority happens, the chancellor will face seriously unwelcome choices... [/snip]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3069477/posts?page=3#3
Exit poll: Merkel’s party strongest in German election; coalition partner’s chances unclear
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3069858/posts
The ARD television exit poll... put her coalition partners, the pro-business Free Democrats, on 4.7 percent — just below the minimum to keep their seats.
You support the euro . . . why? You want to see it become the alternative against the US dollar, and help it strengthen the hand of the anti-freedom EU elites?
As to competition for the US dollar, I wish.
In the last 5 years the Federal Reserve has printed $3 trillion in new money, the US Treasury has sold $5 trillion in new debt, but interest rates are still less than inflation.
Centralization simplifies financial transactions and increases economic efficiency? That sounds very one-worldish.
Why do you wish the dollar to fall?
Re: “Why do you wish the dollar to fall?”
I want the dollar to COMPETE.
I have always favored a strong dollar, and a strong Euro, in every kind of economy, and for every kind of business.
Since 2007, I believe the lack of currency competition has allowed the Federal Reserve and US Treasury to behave with near criminal recklessness.
Besides the Euro, the other currencies in the world are simply too small or too illiquid to force sound financial and spending policies on the USA.
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