[Tailgunner Joe]

Assad is not winning. In fact he cannot possibly win, even if he gassed millions of his own people.

Alawites are Shiite muslims of the apocalyptic “Twelver” sect waiting for the Twelfth Imam, the Imam Mahdi who they think will convert Jesus and his followers to islam.

[Nateman]

In Islamic culture lying for the faith is a virtue, part of it's inherent evil. You can't trust anything any Islamic side says. Going by this map it looks like Assad still controls most of the country:

(From Aug 29 The Economist)

[Jacob Kell]

Actually, the Alawites, are considered to be non-Muslims by most Muslims, even the majority of Shiites. Supposedly, the Alawite sect considers Plato and Socrates to be prophets and celebrates both Easter and Christmas, which doesn’t sound very Muslim to me. The Alawite version of the shahada - the Muslim profession of belief - is apparently “There is no God but Ali”. That would be like a Christian sect replacing the Holy Trinity with Peter.