Posted on 04/23/2013 2:42:54 PM PDT by SMGFan
The announcement that Montana Democrat Max Baucus is retiring shakes up the fight for the Senate in 2014 more than a bit.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.rollcall.com ...
Why did Rehberg lose last year? Can he win now?
If GOP wins Senate maybe Leahy will finally retire next time?
Sounds like Max doesn’t want to put up with years of grief for his HusseinCare law. Nor does he want to get his ass kicked out in 2014.
Three to seven pick-ups.
• WV probable Rep (Capito looks like pre-emptive favorite)
• NC likely Rep (Myrick has shown strength in early polling, but GOP field hasn’t coalesced)
• SD likely Rep (Rounds looks like a pre-emptive favorite)
• AR leans Rep (Lincoln lost badly in 2010, but GOP field hasn’t coalesced; wouldn’t be too surprised if Pryor switches)
• AK leans Rep (Parnell has shown strength in early polling)
• LA leans Rep (Jindal has declined, but maybe could change his mind)
• MT leans Rep (with Baucus out, Republicans should win)
• CO leans Dem (Owens has shown strength in early polling)
• IA leans Dem (looks wide open)
• OR leans Dem (elected with 49%, has shown weakness in early polling)
• MI likely Dem (retirement opens an opportunity)
• NH likely Dem (could be third and deciding round of Shehaan v Sununu)
• MN likely Dem (Some Republican has got to think he can beat Franken)
• NJ probable Dem (Booker looks like a pre-emptive favorite)
• NM safe Dem (elected with 61%)
• VA safe Dem (elected with 65%, has a double-digit lead over McDonnell)
Why did we lose Montana (and for that matter, North Dakota) - we didn’t nationalize these Senate races. Ryan should’ve gone to each of these states to make an appearance with our candidates.
and IYHO the GOP held seats are lean GOP or better?
Why did Rehberg lose? He was an nonentity to rank and file GOP. He seemed to be a nice enough guy but to win against an anything goes campaigner like Tester he needed to be a better fighter. I never got real engaged in that contest but it appeared that the reason Denny lost was because he tried to ride the race out thinking he’d squeak by. Someday the GOP will learn that they need to treat every race like its hand to hand combat and have one intention to eviscerate their opponents and smear the Democrat party at the same time. The Democrats are experts at this and of course have allies in the media but at a minimum we can reach parity and make sure that moderates hate the Democrats just as much as they hate the GOP which was a big part of Obama’s strategy against Romney.
I don’t see any GOP loses, not that I rate all Republican seats as Safe. All the remaining Democrat seats are Safe. I only include Virginia on my list so nobody thinks I didn’t think about that state.
Lousy candidates.
Montana needs to find a native Ted Cruz.
Any names come up for the GOP for that Montana seat ?
ND: Romney won with 58 percent, with Johnson getting 2. VERY RED STATE! Rick Berg got 49.3. A joint appearance with Ryan would have made the difference.
MT: Romney won with 55 percent, with Johnson getting 3. ALSO VERY RED! Rehberg lost by 4 points, with 6 going to the Libertarian. 4 Points ... I’m not so sure a joint appearance with Ryan would have made the difference.
Possibly. Here’s how: by holding the Libertarian in the Senate race to 4, and by keeping 1 percent more of voters on the Republican reservation in the Senate race instead of voting Democratic.
As to whether our candidates were less inspiring, sorry, sometimes you have to play the cards you’re dealt.
Everyone remember where he lives...
so you can send him a retirement card, ya know.
Didn’t Sununu say he was out of the NH race?
I mean, come on, Northern Republican state folks...
Once upon a time there were "conservative" Democrats. JFK was one. My own father was one. Senator Baucus may have once been one.
Now, there are none.
Rehberg was a GREAT Congressional Rep. for the state of Montana. Well respected, and lived in his Congressional office rather than lease/buy a dwelling and use his housing stipend. A good man.
Hope he gives it another shot.
Schweitzer(D) past gOVERNOR of MT is considering a run for Max B’s Senate seat. Schweitzer is one of the ‘bad ones’ in our country (IMHO), but liked by the watermelons in Montana.
Should be interesting...
Montana voted in a Republican Representative and a Democrat Senator. The Democrats win in Montana by running as Republicans. Schweitzer already lost once running for the Senate. Schweitzer’s big accomplishment in eight years as MT’s Governor was that he wore his chair out from napping in it. There’s lots of voter fraud in MT. Each Indian on the reservations proudly casts his five votes for the Democrats. Voter fraud is a matter of civic pride in Butte. There’s a video out of Schweitzer speaking to the trial lawyers back East where he proudly proclaims how he facilitated voter fraud......to the cheers of the trial lawyers. Rehberg lost because Tester was campaigning for years while Rehberg seemed to wait until the last six months. Tester promised to be a good Republican, but now he’s voted for gun control. The Republicans have a secret weapon in Mark Racicot. They also have a new Republican Attorney General with Tim Fox. The Democrats can look at Schweitzer or the new Governor or even the new Lieutenant Governor.
Wonder if Ashley Judd will move in and give it a shot?
The one issue that could've nationalized the race for the GOP -- successfully -- was Obamacare.
But, of course, no Republican could run against Obamacare -- because our presidential candidate invented it.
"Lousy candidates."
But Rehberg and Berg were both certified solid-gold establishment candidates, weren't they?
Didn't Karl Rove tell us only the Tea Party selects unelectable candidates...???
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