How wrong can you be and still not realize it?
By late March, 1860, and upon the realization that the Morrill tariff would make them uncompetitive, greed and fear of economic loss was propelling the Federal government toward coercion of the seceded states.
The New York Herald said:
“ The combined effects of these two tariffs must be to desolate the entire North, to stop its importations, cripple its commerce and turn its capital into another channel; for, although there is specie now lying idle in New York to the amount of nearly forty millions of dollars, and as much more in the other large cities, waiting for an opportunity of investment, it will be soon scattered all over the country, wherever the most available means of using it are presented, and it will be lost to the trade of this city and the other Northern states.
“There is nothing to be predicted of the combination of results produced by the Northern and Southern tariffs but general ruin to the commerce of the Northern confederacy… The tariff of the South opens its ports upon fair and equitable terms to the manufacturers of foreign countries, which it were folly to suppose will not be eagerly availed of; which the stupid and suicidal tariff just adopted by the Northern Congress imposes excessive and almost prohibitory duties upon the same articles.
“Thus the combination of abolition fanatics and stockjobbers in Washington has reduced the whole North to the verge of ruin, which nothing can avert unless the administration recognizes the necessity of at once calling an extra session of Congress to repeal the Morrill tariff, and enact such measures as may bring back the seceded States, and reconstruct the Union upon terms of conciliation, justice and right.”
The results of the secession and the impact on trade were reported in the Richmond Dispatch of May 23, 1861:
“The total amount of imports at the port of New York for the week ending on the 18th, was $2,328,479; for the same week in 1860, $5,517,58 . This was a decrease of 57%.
“Since 1st January, $66,424,138; for the same period last year, $91,215,143. The decline was 30% at that point.
In March while the furious clamor continued in the newspapers, and Lincoln and the cabinet labored on their secret plans, a Charleston citizen was quoted on the state of affairs in Charleston harbor.
“Taken altogether, this is a most singular state of war….Fort Sumter is surrounded by batteries prepared to batter or shell it….Nearly the like state of things exists as to Fort Pickens.
“The officers of the fort and the besieging Confederate army even exchange friendly visits, and dine at each other’s quarters.
“Two different governments are now existing, and the new one completely organized and established.
“Peaceful relations have continued between the two peoples, despite the violent animosity of the communities, and still more of individuals of the two sections.
“While every participation and aid of secession in the South is denounced in the North as treason….and even so declared judicially, Southern and Northern men freely visit and travel any where in the other section, without being interfered with by any legal restraint or penalty
“The mails are uninterrupted, and the railway trains, express transportation and telegraph lines are operating normally.”
The point of the writer was that despite the clamor in the newspapers and among politicians, that the citizenry was experiencing peace.
The leaders in the South knew that there would only be two choices open to the federal government politicians who had always maintained a permanent monopoly on tax revenues.
Either they would meet the South’s low tax rates and compete in a peaceful free-market which would mean a drastic cut in government revenue, power and special interest benefits.
Or they would suffer financial losses, corporate and national bankruptcy. Not a likely scenario.
Or they would trump up some fake reasons to go to war and attempt to destroy the competitor.
How wrong can you be and still not realize it?
PeaRidge: "By late March, 1860, and upon the realization that the Morrill tariff would make them uncompetitive, greed and fear of economic loss was propelling the Federal government toward coercion of the seceded states."
Rubbish.
Lincoln's inaugural address on March 4, 1861 pledged:
This had nothing to do with the Confederacy's 15% tariff rates passed on March 15, but rather came from Lincoln's oath of office as President.
PeaRidge: "The New York Herald said: “ The combined effects of these two tariffs must be to desolate the entire North..."
The New York Herald was a pro-Confederate Democrat Northern paper opposed to Republicans generally, and the new tariff specifically.
The fact remains, if all Democrats had been as opposed to Morrill as the New York Herald was, that bill could never have passed in the first place.
But they were not.
Many Democrats, along with nearly all Republicans, welcomed higher tariffs precisely because they provided protection for US manufactured products.
PeaRidge: "The results of the secession and the impact on trade were reported in the Richmond Dispatch of May 23, 1861:"
Sure, there is no doubt the Union suffered economically because of secession and war.
It did not, however, suffer as much as the Confederacy, which first planned, provoked, started and formally declared ("recognized") war on the United States, before a single Confederate soldier was killed by any Union force, or any Confederate state "invaded" by any Union Army.
PeaRidge: "Or they would trump up some fake reasons to go to war and attempt to destroy the competitor."
The only "trumping" was done by Confederates themselves in demanding surrender of Federal troops and properties, and then launching military assault against them.
The demands for surrender were in themselves acts of rebellion / insurrection.
Military assault on Fort Sumter was an act of war.
The Confederacy's declaration ("recognition") of war formally completed its status change and guaranteed the Confederacy's ultimate destruction.