False in every sense.
First, as rusty points out in post #407, as of April 1861, there was no great loss of imports, just normal fluctuations of business -- up one month, down the next, etc.
Second, Republican policy was to reduce imports and encourage domestic production through use of higher protective Morrill Tariff rates.
So Lincoln could not "start war" just because Republican policy succeeded!
Third, Lincoln did not "start war", period.
In March 1861, only the Confederacy threatened war, if its demands (i.e., surrender of US Fort Sumter) were not met.
In April 1861, only the Confederacy started war by assaulting and seizing US Fort Sumter.
In May 1861, only the Confederacy formally declared war on the United States.
What Lincoln did in early April 1861 was decide to resupply but not reinforce Sumter, and so officially notified South Carolina Governor Pickens.
The Confederacy chose to use Lincoln's lawful actions as excuse to start war on the United States.
You did not read Rustbucket data:
Month ... % change from 1860 to 1861
Feb ..... -15.6
Mar ..... -22.8
Apr ..... -12.3
May ..... -11.5
Jun ..... -34.0
Jul ..... -40.0
Aug ..... -65.7
Sep ..... -55.1
Fifty to Sixty per cent drops cannot be passed off as normal fluctuations.
Next, it was the tariff/trade derivitives that jeopardized Northern ports. Gold was already flowing South after Morrill passed the house and just before secession. Credit resolution was in jeopardy due to the politicians in Washington.
Read this comment: "In 1860,...the secession crisis was reflected in a business panic," wrote historian James A. Rawley. "The stock market fell, New York merchants found difficulty in collecting bills in the South, and gold began to flow to Southern ports. It was estimated that $3,500,00 in gold moved in ten days. New Yorkers engaged in Southern trade feared debt repudiation; by November 14 panic had set in and business failures began. Found here
You then said: "Second, Republican policy was to reduce imports and encourage domestic production through use of higher protective Morrill Tariff rates. So Lincoln could not "start war" just because Republican policy succeeded!"
Do you realize how utterly stupid that comment is....with all due respect. I would suggest you go backward about 25 posts and read the commentary of the newspapers, businessmen, and politicians....all of whom realized the meaning of the Confederate Tariff rates relative to Morrill.