[BroJoeK]

PeaRidge: "As of January, no products from the seceded states entered the Transatlantic trade, nor were transshipped to northeastern ports.

"Since Southern products accounted for 70% of the trade inventory, this was lost."

Your figure of "70%" can refer to:

• "By the early 1800s, Europe, particularly Britain, had a ravenous appetite for cotton, and the American South was far and away the leading exporter.
  In 1810, the South was supplying Britain with 48% of its needs.
  By 1830, that percentage would rise to 70%, and hold that level up to 1860."

• "The states that entered the Confederate States accounted for 70 percent of total US exports, and the Confederate leaders believed that this would give the new nation a firm financial basis."

• "Cotton was the primary potential export, accounting for 75 percent of Southern goods either shipped to northern US states or exported in 1860."

• "As for cotton, while 70% was exported, 5% stayed in the South and the other 25% went to northern mills..."

• "Southerners at the local level imposed an embargo on cotton shipments — it was not the government's policy.
  Millions of bales of cotton went unshipped, and by summer 1861 the blockade closed down all normal trade."

• "By late 1861, the Confederate Congress believed the best way to remove the Union blockade was through cotton diplomacy, or a cotton embargo.
  Cotton diplomacy stopped cotton exports to Great Britain and Europe “to coerce European intervention by withholding all exports of raw cotton or attempt to create a cartel that would reduce the quantity of exports to a level that earned monopoly profits.”[2]
  In doing so, the Confederacy would gain valuable allies fight the Civil War or generate enough profit from cotton to sustain the war effort."

PeaRidge: "Since Southern products accounted for 70% of the trade inventory, this was lost."

Possibly by January 1862, but not in January 1861, at which point most mills were still bulging with extra cotton inventory.

[PeaRidge]

You, too, are missing the point.

What happened after April, 1861 does not matter to my point.

It was the impending loss of revenue to the Treasury and the severe reduction in imports through US Customs houses that led Lincoln and his people to start war.

You can grouse on about that topic as you wish. I am only concerned with the decision facing Lincoln about the loss of his tariff revenue.