Indeed, that may have been the case. It remains though, that the nation was very divided and the election of Lincoln simply established to the South, that they could be shut out 100 percent of the governance of the nation. That, as much as anything, would have provoked their response to leave.
Of course that's right, but it was an entirely self-inflicted "shut-out".
It happened only because Southern Democrat "Fire-Eaters" walked out of the Democrat convention, refused to support its nominee, and then formed their own party with your namesake as their candidate.
And my opinion is: that was all done deliberately, in order to produce a Republican victory, which would then justify Fire-Eaters' claims that secession was necessary.