Thanks... I will. I certainly do NOT consider myself an expert investor.. far from it. I'm just a somewhat economically savvy engineer, trying to maintain a little something for retirement in 10 years...
That said, I do like to get "facts" correct. I suppose we could quibble about the meaning of "long term"... but, Gold is at the same level it was 18 months ago.. and, has been declining pretty steadily for the past 5 months.... that seem to be a trend to me.
Silver is in an even longer decline... at same price it was 26 months ago, and has been declining since it's blow-off top in early 2011... nearly two years ago.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index has been trending up, also since mid 2011.. and has moved up faster in the past month.
10 yr Bond Yields had been increasing since around July, but.. have moved down in the past few weeks.... and, are still below 2%. That's not a very bullish indication to me? So.... why do you disagree with my other statements?? Oh.. and yes, as the market has approached this 14,100 level, it's sputtering and becoming more volatile... and, DID INDEED have major corrections after hitting these levels last time...
So... really...where was I incorrect? Is it interpretation? Or, are my facts wrong?
As for SDS... I have used it a few times in the past year or two, as a hedge when I get nervous, and don't want (or can't) move out of mutual funds. I guess I've been lucky, because.. I typically haven't held it more than a week or two... just at times when I'm unsure of which way we're going... like now. But, I'm not bearish enough, yet, to do it... just was thinking about. I'll look for another way.
Greatly appreciate your input...
I’m not quibbling w/your facts per se; I just wasn’t sure of your implied “....thus I will take this/these actions”.
I am a 45 year holder of silver, so 5 months isn’t that big a deal....for me. During that time, I have sold silver at $8, $18, $29, and $39, where I sold a lot. I only regret the $8. But that silver I bought for $4.50, so, there you go. I have no great enthusiasm for buying new PMs here for a brand new investor, but I can’t object to a periodic dca nibble approach on it for a LT’er, and for me, I have massive price protection with 000’s of oz I own at probably $15. I can buy a few K worth of silver with no fear because it just goes into a big pile. For the moment, I am just trading SLV because the spreads are not so punitive as they are on the physical.
In general, I agree with your caution. IMO stocks are near their potential highs...maybe we within 2-5% of a secular high. But I do not think the downside is all that much bigger. You really have to look hard for special situations.
I’ve just come to realize that in general, it’s preferable to be a complacent or disinterested long with protective stops under the market than a pessimistic short with multiple bruises, having been gouged by every WTF rally from hell taking thousands out my account.