Massive Explosion Reported at Iran's Fordow Nuclear Facility [plus TXnMA Photo Analysis]

Business Insider Military and Defense ^ | Jan. 28, 2013, 7:03 AM | Robert Johnson

[TXnMA]

Reports of an explosion at Iran's Fordow nuclear facility have surfaced and are being both confirmed and denied by multiple sources.

The Jerusalem Post cites a report by Reza Kahlili that says: “The blast shook facilities within a radius of three miles. Security forces have enforced a no-traffic radius of 15 miles, and the Tehran- Qom highway was shut down for several hours after the blast.” Kahlili's report says the Fordow nuclear facility was severely damaged in an explosion and up to 240 workers trapped inside. The explosion was reportedly confined to the plant, suggesting that if it were an airstrike, it was highly localized. But this possibility is no more or less likely than sabotage, or an accident, assuming the explosion occurred at all.

>SNIP<

Iran's official news agency, says the same thing, with the IRNA, promptly denying the explosion, claiming the news was simply the result of the Western media-fueled "propoganda machine." That might have ended the story there, but The Times of London's Israel correspondent Sheera Frenkel is confirming the incident through her own independent sources: An explosion is believed to have damaged Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, which is being used to enrich uranium, Israeli intelligence officials have told The Times. Sources in Tel Aviv said yesterday that they thought the explosion happened last week. The Israeli Government is investigating reports that it led to extensive structural damage and 200 workers had been trapped inside. One Israeli official said: “We are still in the preliminary stages of understanding what happened and how significant it is.” He did not know, he added, if the explosion was “sabotage or accident”, and refused to comment on reports that Israeli aircraft were seen near the facility at the time of the explosion.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

You’re just trying to cheer me up.

[PeaRidge]

...all your basements are belong to us...

[norton]

Well...you COULD tell us but I expect you’d have a hard time killing us all afterward.

[copaliscrossing]

All I can tell you is that Jay Carney wasn’t lying.

I guess there's a first for everything.

[TXnMA]

First, here is the latest publicly- available Google Earth view of the facility, with salient features labeled:

Next, that same view with the relevant portion of the article's image georefenced to the "before" image and rendered with transparecy, allowing both to be visible in the overlay area.

If the article's image is authentic, it is apparent that:

1. A significant amount of low-albedo material has been ejected and re-deposited over a large area of the site surface.

2. The center of the jecta appears to be associated with the northern pair of tunnel entrances.

3. The ejecta deposit extends northward across the highway -- potentially contaminating a section of it.

4. I have not been able to identify any evidence of a "bunker buster" bomb being the cause of the damage.

5. The facility may be constructed in at least two independent or isolatable sections. There is no visible ejecta directly associated with the southern tunnel entrances or the single tunnel entrance to the east.

6. So, only part of the facility may have been directly damaged by the blast. However shock damage may be extnsive throughout the faciity.

7. The Iranian nuke program just took a big kick in the teeth -- and they have a big mess on their hands!

[Political Junkie Too]

Your link is going to a list of January 2012 earthquakes, over a year ago.

Here is a link from the day in question. It shows a 5.5 earthquake about 50 miles east of Kerman and 50 miles north of Qom, about where the nuclear site is reported to be.

-PJ

[Cold Heart]

The ejecta should be radioactive and be detectable from down wind sensors. Hopefully we’ll hear more.

[reagandemocrat]

Nice work.

[WellyP]

Kerman is 385 miles ESE of Fordo.

[txhurl]

If a partial cause was lithium-ion battery banks, well, let’s just say they ALSO blow up real good, with not a lot of goading.. just my professional experience.

Instant hell on earth if enough go up, and it’s real hard to kill the flame.

[libstripper]

How far away would the closest non-Iranian sensors be? Possibly far enough that they wouldn’t detect it?

[Bob]

Unusual image. No blast marks or debris, just a hole (deep underground explosion?) No indication of recovery operation.

To me, it looks like a massive sinkhole, something that you'd see on the surface that was caused by a huge subterranean collapse.

[Political Junkie Too]

Yeah, I see what I did. I misread Bam as Qom on the map. Still, it was a 5.5 earthquake on the day in question.

-PJ

[Hardraade]

They’ll keep doing these nuclear explosions until somebody puts his eye out...

[Ouderkirk]

I figure that the Saudi’s with the clandestine help of the Israeli’s smuggled in a HE a bomb underground that once detonated caused a serious problem. Once the Uranium Hexaflouride breaks down and the HF acid starts to destroy the things the subsequent release of hydrogen gas will further destroy all contained spaces.

Now I would expect the islamonazi’s to send in their special crazies to salvage what’s left.

[nascarnation]

Great post, thanks!

(I learned a new word, albedo)

[MWestMom]

“What difference does it make?”

---

That is my new favorite phrase. : )

[TXnMA]

My analysis is in Comment #45.

FYI, I did consider the possibility of cloud shadow, but for a cloud to produce a shoadow anywhere near that dark, the cloud would have to be extremely dense (a very tall cumulonimbus) and very close to the ground, And from the satellite altitude, such a low lying cloud would be visible in the image, In fact, it would have obscured the subject.

If anyone can show me an lmage of an isolated (no visible cloud) cloud shadow on Google Earth that produces that same low albedo and high opacity -- I will reconsider my analysis.

That leaves two alternatives: a dark, dusty deposit -- or Photoshop trickery. I'll see if I can fake the effect on the "before" photo...

[The Cajun]

Enlarged, reduced contrast, increased brightness, sharpened.
?????

[PA Engineer]

I have not been able to identify any evidence of a "bunker buster" bomb being the cause of the damage.

There were other unconfirmed reports that the facility roof lighting detonated simultaneously in multiple locations. The report went on to say that the explosions were caught on camera prior to the monitoring system going dead.