Posted on 01/15/2013 6:23:44 AM PST by Mrs. Don-o
Five years ago, on a quiet, leisurely Thursday night, my husband and I sat at the dining room table with a yellow notepad, discussing when we should start having kids.
"See, here's how it works," he said, drawing a graph. "With a dog, you put in a medium amount of work, and you get a medium amount of reward. If you were to, say, purchase a lion, you'd put in a lot of work, but you'd get pretty much no reward - and you might even get eaten. Horrible deal." He paused, drawing a straight line that hit each point directly between the axes. "See? With a kid, you put in a ton of work, but you also get a huge reward for years to come. It's a great deal!"
That was three kids ago, and I can assure you that the "ton of work" part is true. The "huge reward," happily, is also true. Children are a source of great joy, and, as a bonus, often hilarious. This is especially useful to remember when the preschooler gives you pinkeye, the toddler flushes your contact lenses down the toilet, and the baby cooks up a habit of happily, inexplicably, all-out yodeling at 4:30 each morning.
What's strange about our dining room child-planning summit, from a historical perspective, is that we considered it at all. "A few generations ago, people weren't stopping to contemplate whether having a child would make them happy," wrote Jennifer Senior in her much-discussed parenting treatise, "All Joy and No Fun," which ran in New York magazine in 2010. "Having children was simply what you did."
But not, apparently, anymore. Around the globe, fertility rates are plummeting. Countries like Japan and Russia teeter on self-imposed fertility cliffs, facing dramatic population shrinkage and the potential collapse of their welfare states. Europe, with stagnant birth rates, isn't far behind -- and, contrary to popular opinion, neither is America, according to Weekly Standard writer Jonathan V. Last. His new book, What to Expect When No One's Expecting: America's Coming Demographic Disaster, documents a remarkable demographic shift: the global baby un-boom.
Last has good timing. A new Pew report shows the traditionally robust American birthrate falling to record lows. Recent data from the Census Bureau and other studies suggest that the world's population, once a source of widespread hand-wringing, could stop growing within our lifetimes. Meanwhile, in its latest annual report, Planned Parenthood cited a record number of abortions: 333,964 in 2011 alone.
The magic fertility number, if you want the population to remain stable, is 2.1 children per woman. Today, the U.S. fertility rate perches at 2.01. Compared to countries like Poland (1.32), Germany (1.36), and Singapore (1.11), that might seem impressive. But as Last points out in What to Expect, America's buoyant fertility may be a statistical mirage.
Break the numbers down demographically, and the trends seem less promising. For college-educated women, for instance, the fertility rate is roughly 1.6. As education goes up, fertility shrinks. Hispanic women, meanwhile, pull far more than their own weight, with an average rate of 2.73. The problem? Their fertility numbers are falling fast as well, and continue to plummet as immigrant women assimilate into the larger U.S. culture.
For certain environmentalists, misanthropes, and frustrated motorists in Los Angeles, less people on the planet might sound appealing. But as Last argues, "Very Bad Things" have historically accompanied depopulation, including disease, war, and economic disaster. In the case of the United States and Western Europe, the latter seems to be the most pressing. In the case of our other global neighbors (China, Iran, or Russia, for instance), the second-to-last may loom equally large.
When people, particularly males, start talking about how other people should have more babies, certain ladies start freaking out. In December, when Ross Douthat published a New York Times column titled "More Babies, Please," shrieking erupted in various corners of the Internet. "Douthat," wrote one outraged Slate.com commentator, "is clearly irritated at his countrymen and especially his countrywomen for their persnickety desire to enjoy life rather than see it as a dutiful trudge to the grave."
Upon reading this, I must admit, I laughed out loud. Perhaps it was because, just moments before, my toddler had taken a giant mouthful of applesauce, coyly turned my way, and sneezed. But perhaps it was also because, in its own way, laced between the paragraphs of hysteria (Overpopulation! Climate change! Women chained barefoot in the kitchen!), this snippet of Internet hyperbole really said it all. What does it mean to "enjoy life"? What is our purpose? Why do we have kids, anyway?
Not so long ago, people had children for simple economic and religious reasons. Some people had children just because everyone else was doing it, or, most obviously, because they lacked reliable birth control. Today, "a thousand evolutions in modern life" -- Last cites education, delayed marriage, the Pill, urbanization, abortion, modern capitalism, insane parenting costs, secularization, and even car seat laws -- have shifted our view of children. For some, Last notes, having children is almost an "act of consumption." For others, it's an "act of self-actualization." For many, it's simply a lifestyle choice. The individual, in short, reigns.
But as we've seen, those reasons aren't enough to inspire multiple babies, probably because having kids isn't exactly a trip to the Four Seasons Bora Bora. It's not even a trip to the grungy Super 8 off the local highway -- there, at least, you can sleep in. To have kids primarily as a "lifestyle choice," in fact, would border on insane, considering it's a lifestyle largely devoid of "me time," leisurely breakfasts, spur-of-the-moment plans that don't involve going to Target, and, as my dad liked to hopelessly request when I was a kid, "peace and quiet."
The best arguments for having children, unfortunately, run opposed to modern, secular American culture. Good reasons to have kids tend to be about delayed gratification, prioritizing family, putting others first, transmitting serious values and beliefs, focusing on something larger than yourself, and understanding the difference between joy and fun. Perhaps this is why, as Last notes, "American pets now outnumber American children by more than four to one." It's also why, if American fertility continues to slide -- and, as the author notes, that's still an "if" at this point -- there's little the government can do.
What to Expect When No One's Expecting discusses potential policy solutions to the global fertility drought. Many are vague, and few are convincing. When it comes to pro-natalist government policy, welfare-state support for parents seems to work a bit; outright bribery, as recently attempted in Singapore, does not. But the main driver of faltering global fertility -- and the reason Last's book is so interesting -- is based on culture, not policy.
The good news is that culture can be engaged and changed. The bad news is that change can be plodding. America still has time to adjust its priorities in terms of marriage, community, and family. Other countries, having already jumped off the fertility cliff, may not have that luxury.
Heather Wilhelm is a writer based in Chicago. http://www.heatherwilhelm.com/
Reflections prompted by Jonathan V. Last's new book, "What to Expect When No One's Expecting: America's Coming Demographic Disaster."
Another demographics author, Steve Mosher, says the reason America isn't *yet* population collapse like Japan and Russia, is that the Republican-controlled Congress in 1994 passed a tax credit of $1,000 for each child under 16, and generously increased the per dependent deduction so that it is now $4,650. This means that young couples can actually lower their taxes by having more children, to the point where young couples of modest income pay virtually no income tax.
Mosher says that while this policy has kept America’s birthrate near replacement, this is not good enough. Young couples should also be sheltered from paying social security taxes, for example. Those who are willing to marry and have children should have their student loans forgiven. They should be exempted from state taxes, from sales tax, from any and all manner of taxation.
After all, they are investing in the future of America in the most fundamental way: by investing in the future generation.
I sometimes hear people say they wish they had had more kids. But to have a decent-sized family, you kinda have to start young. Younger than we did, anyhow.
Either HGTV is biased against children, or there really are 50% of the couples shown hunting for houses for themselves and their dogs.
Will their dogs be paying into Social Security for them, or taking care of them in their dotage? This generation has certainly changed the pattern of familial responsibility. Wonder how that will work out in 40 or 50 years.
I look at two of my unmarried sons and wonder if out of those 55,000,000 infants-in-utero who were killed in abortion, a couple of them were destined to be their wives but never lived?
They can’t seem to find their soulmates.
Here in Virginia, the majority of the ones we see pushing multiple strollers are immigrants... legal and illegal.
Demographic change, indeed.
It would also help greatly if prospective parents didn’t have to fear the influences of an increasingly perverted, sex-driven, pro-homosexual societal culture.
Well with WHO we have in the WH, it would scare people.
We reep what we sow. The day will come when Abortion will be illegal—not out of any religious reason—but because we will need people! We will need workers and slaves to keep alive the machinery of the state—It will be like Metropolis—the old movie. I fear the end will be revolution.
“American pets now outnumber American children by more than four to one.”
For what it's worth, there ARE people who love their spouses, and are overjoyed with their multiple children. Folks who know that life is so short, so precious, and that the days of diapering and nose-wiping will pass all too quickly. Folks who will risk heartbreak, should a child encounter tragedy, but who also risk unparalleled joy and thrills when children reach milestones in life - walking, talking, driving, graduating, marrying, bearing children.
Pundits, bitter feminists, metro males, whoever, can go ahead and head into old age alone, skip the work, yes; but they also skip the depths of joy that children bring. But, a child doesn't bear the responsibility of bringing you anything - love and duty are the burdens of parenthood, not childhood. But, wow, I can think of no greater priviledge than to be a mom - of whether one or 10.
You really made a fantastic point - one which I never thought of in that way.
We always hear “what if they could have cured cancer” or some such grandiose claim.
And I’ve always thought of the sadness of the immediate family, living without that child, sibling, cousin, etc.
But God has a plan for each of us, and wants us to love one another. What if man, in his folly, as killed the one whom God planned for us to meet, love and marry?
Sad.
For what it's worth, there ARE people who love their spouses, and are overjoyed with their multiple children. Folks who know that life is so short, so precious, and that the days of diapering and nose-wiping will pass all too quickly. Folks who will risk heartbreak, should a child encounter tragedy, but who also risk unparalleled joy and thrills when children reach milestones in life - walking, talking, driving, graduating, marrying, bearing children.
Pundits, bitter feminists, metro males, whoever, can go ahead and head into old age alone, skip the work, yes; but they also skip the depths of joy that children bring. But, a child doesn't bear the responsibility of bringing you anything - love and duty are the burdens of parenthood, not childhood. But, wow, I can think of no greater priviledge than to be a mom - of whether one or 10.
She and her husband are rock-ribbed conservatives who live in the middle state of the only three where not one single county voted for Obama. (Hint: It also has the highest Native American population percentage in the U.S.A. and most of them aren't working in casinos and selling tax-free tobacco.)
Of course, every one of their kids are being trained to be useful productive adults. And they are all a joy to be around. Their Christmas card this year was a family photo where they were all doing the nativity scene. The baby dressed as baby Jesus, Mom and Dad as Mary and Joseph and the older kids as shepherd boys and angels. Even the goats on their farm got into the act.
Sorry about the double post - meant to say, “familial” not familiar...
Sorry about the double post - meant to say, “familial” not familiar...
Not only do people rely on government tax deductions for children, they demand that the government supply food in the form of WIC. Can you imagine what the birth rate would be if propestive mothers thought they had to pay for thier own children’s food?!?!?!
I admit that for every night I sleep uneasily worrying about my future I spend a night sleeping soundly because I'm NOT worrying about my child. We have a lot of Christian friends with kids and with a few exceptions the children are turning out amoral, colossally selfish and sexually confused. Worse, they are STAYING that way into their thirties. I've seen marriages fail because adult children (and often their adult friends/lovers/ambiguous "companions") are living at home putting huge emotional and financial strains on their parents. It's scary to watch.
Well I gave my wife (who is over 40) a warning, no kids no marriage... I refuse to be in a childless marriage..
Populations receding is a dream come true for Bill Gates who also supports euthanasia except for himself.
Hmmm... “putting others first”... “focusing on something larger than yourself... doesn’t sound American to me, COMRADE!
Geez, why not just back up a dump truck full of government money to their house and dump it in?
You could get bipartisan support for the idea by plastering George Bush's (either one) face on one side of the truck and Barack Obama's on the other.
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