As I’ve said before I find it exceedingly unlikely the rats will be gaining House seats in 2014. I know you look at the big picture but I look at it seat by seat.
Basically history says if Obama has 65% approval they will gain 5 seats tops. A repeat of 1998. This is the nightmare scenario. Do you really see that swine having those kinds of numbers? Congressional disapproval will not matter it’s all about the President.
There is only 1 specific seat I worry about right now, California 31 held by Gary Miller, he probably would have lost 2 months ago if he had faced a democrat and not another Republican. Obama won it by 16/17 points, actually it was slightly worse than the 2008 numbers. Cali sucks. That’s the only Republican held seat in either chamber that we start off at a disadvantage in.
Auh2orepublican lists seat in the northeast that are competitive but I doubt most of these will be seeing close races in 2014, only the 3 of the ones in NY did this past election.
We have a decent list of targets, a few Romney districts that quite disgustingly split their tickets. 3 in Arizona that were super close (2 Romney, 1 Obama) giving the rats an unnatural majority in the delegation.
As for the Senate, we need 6, no guarantee, 2012 was a clusterf88k. We have more than enough targets though, early it’s looking good with top candidates in WV, SD and MA if Brown decides to run again.
I admitted you made a good point back then, POTUS and Senate races are far different then House races were districts are crafted by the governors. Ohio generated a few more R seats through redistricting.
A number of Senate races were blown by R party crackpots who were deemed to be purer than their primary competitors, but many of these House R districts are designed to not switch parties if that happens there.
Now that the last crisis is over (the outcome should have been no surprise) we get to look forward to arguing about the next one.
One good sign, MCConnnell and Bohner are telling Dems that nothing will get through the congress, no immigration, no gun control, no VAWA, until the budget and debt limit battles are settled. a great way of putting off gun control till the public forgets about the shooting.