My opinion is that there are a few too many variables for a simple "formula" or heuristic to be universally applicable.
Including, for example:
Age of person
Gender of person
Body fat percentage of person
Time-dependent mapping (to childhood) of body-fat percentage of person
Time-dependent mapping (to childhood) of exercise history of person
Past diet of person (chronic sweet tooth different from healthy eater)
Type, duration, and frequency of exercise protocol
Toxic load, including lyme disease, mold, solvents
Calories consumed currently
Composition of diet currently (carb%, protein%, fat%)
Types of carbs consumed
Timing and size of meals, absolute and in relation to exercise
I think it will be found that one's profile of exercise vs. food (timing, duration, frequency of both) will have a LOT to do with epigenetics which determine how one handles food; and that it will be found that *drastic* but consistent changes to one's exercise and diet can re-set the epigenetics from "fatty" to "lean mean fighting machine" over time: requiring only titanium willpower and consistency; but that, as with so much else, "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" and eating healthy with a history of exercise throughout childhood and adolescence will make it MUCH harder to gain weight later in life.
Cheers!
The comments on these threads supply ample evidence for that fact.