Ok, that is a legitimate argument. But I think the Palinophilia on FR is NOT reflected in either the Tea Party or conservatives on the whole. I think you are correct that she thought it wasn't "her time" but I don't think this reflects what you think.
This is based on two things. First, I think (can't prove) that Palin did polling the whole time her movie (which fell far below expectation---I know Bannon and his original deal), her "Alaska" show, and her bus tour were going on. They didn't move the dials. If she had been polling high teens when the primaries started, I think she would have been in.
Second---and this is anecdotal only, based on speaking to Tea Parties, Rotary (pretty conservative small businessmen), and conservative college kids from Young America's Foundation meetings---there was no enthusiasm for Palin. People here don't want to hear it, but I have found in conversations with all these groups that females (especially younger ones) do not like Palin as a political figure. I don't know the reason college-aged girls don't like her, but I think it has to do with the fact that she's too much like their mothers. As for the Tea Party groups I've spoken to, there is no stated reason, but the unwillingness to support her is obvious, even among very conservative people (especially women) I talk with. Probably the person they liked best was Newt, but none thought he could win. Santorum--- and I'm just repeating what I heard over and over---was viewed as sanctimonious and not a particularly good economics guy.
Part of the reason we got Romney was that there was this expectation that a knight on a white horse would come riding up, and throughout 2011 I kept saying here that there are four elements to a good candidate: 1) personality/appeal, 2) money, 3) organization, and 4) policies. Palin had money at one level, but could she raise the hundreds of millions from the Wall Street guys and the big business/Silicon Valley types? No. They really didn't like her. and the policies, but her organization was horrible. I have heard this from people very close to her who like her, but she's a control freak. This is understandable the way McCain's team messed with her. But it's a serious fault. I'm told that basic decisions a staffer should make in minutes took days, decisions that should take days took weeks. She had to personally approve everything. As for #1, she is extremely popular among a % of conservatives, but it is a very narrow but very deep loyalty.
Bottom line, I thought in 2011 Elmer Fudd could beat Obama, but as Romney's organizational failings showed ( and he was light years ahead of Cain or Gingrich or Santorum), you need people who know how to win and who will be ruthless. I thought at least Romney had the latter characteristic but I was wrong. His organization also proved little better than McCain's.
So, IMHO he are back to my original observations that the TP was losing momentum long before the primaries, and that above all it is too old to be a revolutionary force. No revolution in history has been led by the old. (likewise, no revolution in history has been SUSTAINED by the young). We must find a way, as Reagan did, to make conservatism appeal to the 25-40 year olds.
...this is anecdotal only, based on speaking to Tea Parties, Rotary (pretty conservative small businessmen), and conservative college kids from Young America's Foundation meetings---there was no enthusiasm for Palin. People here don't want to hear it, but I have found in conversations with all these groups that females (especially younger ones) do not like Palin as a political figure. I've seen statements like yours made many times on this website, and every time the string is pulled, it turns out the poster is relating their experience with an exceedingly small number of non-Tea Party, establishment Republicans, who are mostly informed by the MSM.
Also, in most cases I've seen, the poster themselves isn't, and never was a Palin fan, and usually turns out to be strongly supportive of some establishment party figure.
Right after the election, Greta VanSusteren ran a poll on her Fox blog which asked, "After the election, who do you consider the leader of the Republican party?" There were perhaps a dozen high profile Republican politicians' names on that list. Sarah Palin won it hands down, with over 40% of the total votes.
That result mirrors those of nearly every poll that has asked a similar question in the last four years. As an example, here's a graphic pie chart that was posted on the CafePress website in the early months of the 2012 Republican primary campaign. It details the percentages of campaign gear sales for various candidates on their site:
As the chart shows, Palin was far and away the most popular of the potential candidates in the race at that time. She didn't run, but I assure you it wasn't because she didn't poll well enough with voters. She consistently out-polled every other contender in the years leading up to 2012.