Posted on 11/08/2012 7:32:38 AM PST by TonyInOhio
One of the more intriguing narratives for election 2012 was proposed by political scientist Brendan Nyhan fairly early on: that it was "Bizarro 2004."
~ SNIP ~
The Election Day returns actually continued the similarities. George W. Bush won by 2.4 percent of the popular vote, which is probably about what Obama’s victory margin will be once all the ballots are counted.
~ SNIP ~
But most importantly, the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up.
~ SNIP ~
In other words, if our underlying assumption -- that there are 7 million votes outstanding -- is correct, then the African-American vote only increased by about 300,000 votes, or 0.2 percent, from 2008 to 2012. The Latino vote increased by a healthier 1.7 million votes, while the “other” category increased by about 470,000 votes.
This is nothing to sneeze at, but in terms of the effect on the electorate, it is dwarfed by the decline in the number of whites. Again, if our assumption about the total number of votes cast is correct, almost 7 million fewer whites voted in 2012 than in 2008. This isn’t readily explainable by demographic shifts either; although whites are declining as a share of the voting-age population, their raw numbers are not.). In other words, the reason this electorate looked so different from the 2008 electorate is almost entirely attributable to white voters staying home.
Put another way: The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator.
(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...
That's not possible.. Rush is wrong... Romney lost because of massive voter fraud... Blah, blah, blah.
If people want to feel better by believing that Romney lost because of massive voter fraud, then by all means, they should make themselves feel better. But just because Santa Clause, the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy, and Big Foot all make me feel better, that doesn't mean they are real. I'm sure there was voter fraud on both sides (although more on the left than the right). But I really, really doubt there was a coast-to-coast conspiracy to commit voter fraud that was so massive that it resulted in an Obama victory in nearly every battleground state. The problem with conspiracies is that people like to talk, and the larger the conspiracy the greater the likelihood that the conspirators will get caught because of their "loose lips."
Speculation and anecdotal observations on voter turnout is not proof of anything. For example, I voted two hours earlier than I normally vote because I was highly motivated to fire Obama. The line was longer than I had ever seen before. But that may have been because the line is always longer at that time in the morning or because motivated people like me could not wait to cast their votes. Indeed, when I spoke to poll watcher who happens to be my neighbor, he said that despite the early morning rush to vote, total votes were way down in my precinct as compared to 2008 and 2004 and even 2010.
Perhaps the best evidence of lower turnout is to look at what happened in the solid red voting districts. For example, I live in an historically red district in the bluest of blue states, and while there is no way that New York would go Romney, I expected Republican Nan Hayworth to win re-election to Congress and a number of other Republicans to hold their seats in local elections. It was a blood bath and the post-election stats are showing that Republicans stayed home in mass even though local GOP enrollment is higher now than in 2008.
We need only to look at the comments posted here at FR during the GOP primary as a measure of conservative discontent. There were hundreds, perhaps thousands of posts from Freepers who said they would never vote for Romney no matter what. I was one of them and IIRC, even JR took a hard line and promised never to vote for Romney. Although I eventually held my nose and voted for the RINO, even a relatively small number of conservatives sticking to their principles and refusing to vote for Romney would have been enough to assure an Obama victory.
Interesting, sad and infuriating.
I saw your reference to Mia Love losing despite the pre-election polls, and then found this site about voting fraud and machines in Utah:
I’m saying the same and it;s liek banging my head on the desk here .
I put down on my profle page some cases of where these results do not add up and that is just a few.
Something is fishy with these results, even in PA it only need 30 votes more in each precint to have won that state so lets not think it is hard to do this when they have had 4 years of planning.
crowds were big, obsevers kicked out, ballots handed out while people in line in Dem counties .my wife was in one area and saw 3 precints in republcian areas and the lines were long,
Hell youcould not go to a neighbors wihtout people saying they can;t wait to vote
I;m sick of how many just go and say that we did nto get out the vote when I;ve looked at conties here and we did get the vote out and somehow obama got less votes.
Something is not right in FL, VA, OH, WI.
I mean think about this, are they telling me that Ryan was no where to wining his state and that state voed for a Dem senator but the state went republican. Then Walker won his state twice
Who has ever heard of military votes going evenly, well it did happen they say but only in one state VA, a state he obama needed.
sorry call me anything you want but this is not adding up and I;m pissed off how some just try and tell us that this was just not a good campaign after we saw the crowds, polls and what we heard.
I’ve looked at OH and listed that. votes are down for obama.
Biden sent there last minute
4 years of high unemployment, foreclosures etc
yet union votes up by 5%
no not making sense, issues in VA, FL, PA, OH, WI
Vote fraud was as prevalent as it was in 2008. Turnout at my precinct was way up over 2008 turnout. I registered 3 new voters myself.
ping
thank you, do you know if there is a link which state how those counties voted?
Mia Love was a massive threat to the future of the Dem, a black young conservative woman and the left took her out before she got a foot in the door.
Who on this earth has ever heard a person up by double dgits two days before that election and loses .
This is not hard to do around certain areas if you have a DOJ, Holder a media and 4 years of planning.
Disagree. No candidate knows for sure if he’ll win, but he participates honestly according to the Party’s rules. Ron Paul did that and his delegates were legitimately won. Had Romney just tipped his hat a bit and honored Paul’s hard work he would have had a very significant voting block behind him, especially in their proven record of getting out the vote. Instead he did everything he could to alienate them and now the Party has lost a segment of the youth vote because of it.
BTW, I am not a Paul supporter myself.
Don’t mistake the “conservative” voters who stayed home with the conservative activists in the churches and the Tea Party movement. People who are actively involved in conservative causes and the Republican Party did grudgingly go all in for Romney in spite of their reservations about his conservative credentials and his scorched earth tactics against his primary opponents. The people who didn’t show up to vote are a different group entirely.
Keep in mind how low the turnout usually is in an American election. In 2008 Obama was able to energize black and young voters and brought in 9 million more votes than he did in 2012. He had a massive downturn in his level of support. Yes, all of the true believers and activists showed up for Obama, but the 9 million votes he lost were from marginal voters who likely also stayed away from the polls in 2004. The same thing can be said about Romney and McCain. In spite of his weakness as a candidate, McCain did have an energized base thanks to Sarah Palin. That energized base grew in the 2010 mid-term elections, that saw the Tea Party galvanize a “throw the bums out” message in opposition to overspending and Obamacare.
What Romney lost was a group of previously apathetic voters who had been energized by Palin in 2008 and the Tea Party in 2010. Those folks are activists or party workers, but Joe Sixpack who hates all politicians, thinks that they’re all corrupt or incompetent, and needs to be scared or angered into voting. Romney’s polite messaging wasn’t enough to light a fire this year. He needed to make them aware of what Obama was going to do to them in terms of taxes, Obamacare, and destruction of certain industries. He ran a good campaign that brought most of the hardcore Republican supporters back into the fold, but not that 5-10% of marginal Republican support that needs to be fired up.
Don’t mistake the “conservative” voters who stayed home with the conservative activists in the churches and the Tea Party movement. People who are actively involved in conservative causes and the Republican Party did grudgingly go all in for Romney in spite of their reservations about his conservative credentials and his scorched earth tactics against his primary opponents. The people who didn’t show up to vote are a different group entirely.
Keep in mind how low the turnout usually is in an American election. In 2008 Obama was able to energize black and young voters and brought in 9 million more votes than he did in 2012. He had a massive downturn in his level of support. Yes, all of the true believers and activists showed up for Obama, but the 9 million votes he lost were from marginal voters who likely also stayed away from the polls in 2004. The same thing can be said about Romney and McCain. In spite of his weakness as a candidate, McCain did have an energized base thanks to Sarah Palin. That energized base grew in the 2010 mid-term elections, that saw the Tea Party galvanize a “throw the bums out” message in opposition to overspending and Obamacare.
What Romney lost was a group of previously apathetic voters who had been energized by Palin in 2008 and the Tea Party in 2010. Those folks are not activists or party workers, but Joe Sixpack who hates all politicians, thinks that they’re all corrupt or incompetent, and needs to be scared or angered into voting. Romney’s polite messaging wasn’t enough to light a fire this year. He needed to make them aware of what Obama was going to do to them in terms of taxes, Obamacare, and destruction of certain industries. He ran a good campaign that brought most of the hardcore Republican supporters back into the fold, but not that 5-10% of marginal Republican support that needs to be fired up.
GOP-E is very ‘E’! Here’s the disconnect:
1. Don’t embrace homosexuality like Mitt did.
2. Don’t talk of “wealth”, voters don’t think they will ever be “wealthy”.
3. Don’t talk about “hard work”, voters already work hard.
4. Don’t pretend that the Republican Party has not already approved of open borders. Voters know the GOP wants open borders.
5. Condi Rice is an elite Feminist and a bad example.
6. Voters don’t want to work in a “big box” stores for a boss like Mitt. Talk about Main Street and small businesses.
7. Political correctness is not your friend. Tell the youth about “Welfare Queens” and food stamp fraud. Fraud, fraud fraud! No one wants to be cheated.
8. Stop pushing Feminists. They all have a nanny - real women don’t.
9. Young men are hungry for some truth about Feminism and the error of using emotionalism instead of logic. Talk to them straight.
10. Islam is not the religion of peace. Stop Muslim immigration and talk about the dangers.
lets ask this as well.
How many got others to vote?
How many do you know voted McCain and yet stayed at home in those important states?
How many obama voters switched ?
How many Mcain voters went to obama ?
I bet no more than a 100 in the country
something does not add up and I;m not going to just fall in line with the talking heads so they can move on.
something does not sit right abut these results
I saw a lefty site whee they were nervous and watching results come in from counties and even they were praying.
Even some Dems said FL is now Romney and trust me I ma here and travel this state every day nearly and there is no way he obama won here unless you add what votes they got through fraud and those ballots which were being given ut to people in line and then dropped off.
Tehn we can ask where were the Dems and what were they doing when republcain observers were kicked out for hours in quite a few precints.
As for them getting thrown out, seriously this happened in OH, PA, FL and I;m not sure VA but that was not a coincidence thta came from their national campaign
IWSH OUR SIDE HAD BALLS AND WOULD FIGHT BACK FOR ONCE
hardly anyone is asking questions about these results and it’s pissing me off.
Either they are tured and can;t be bothered and woudl rather stay in a group or they don;t want to be called a name or they just do not care.
I’ve listed some instances which does not pass the smell test, these are not made up these are questions which tere seems to been answers
People need to look at why the media was calling my state when the panhandle was voting?
People might say that the fraud was too big too do but it was not.
4 years of a Chicago corrupt machine with a DOJ AND HOLDER, people thrown out to observe, ballots just given out to anyone when we are supposed to have ID shown and what;s more they were in line not ready to vote and standing outside.
Someone looked at PA and found that if we had got 30 votes in each precint then we woudl have won PA .
It’s not that hard to do
I applaud the businesses making the hard choices to reduce their payrolls in light of the election because ObamaCare will stay the law and the land and its being rolled out in 2013 in a big way. If unemployment goes up in the new year, what will Democrats say?
Purists here and elsewhere stayed home or didn’t vote because to them there wasn’t a perfect candidate so they got a perfect socialist dictator socialist Obama. These purists just gave the country, our life , and liberty to socialism and Obama FOREVER. the democrats were able to commit voter fraud because of the power of the government. See the growing government and socialism makes government much more powerful so that it will allow Obama to have all power soon( It already has abused power so many times ).
Somewhere in the NYTimes online coverage there’s a few good national maps, showing county by county how the presidential vote went, etc..
I hadn’t thought of the RP voters. I bet you are right - they certainly are an *active political crowd* so I could see them being pigheaded and defiant. Idiots, it’s about them and not America. No better than the obama groupies - it’s all about them.
Did RP come out in support of Romney? Wonder where their allegiance lies to RP or America.
thank you , my daughter has just come home so I;ll check that out later
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