Posted on 11/06/2012 12:49:06 AM PST by Arthurio
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has analyzed the early voter data from Ohio and seems to have concluded that Obama has done horribly in Ohio early voting. We are no longer talking about polls. He has analyzed hard data that was reported today by the Ohio Secretary of State.
Here are some of his tweets. Nate Silver is NOT happy.
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:22am - 6 Nov 12:
@fivethirtyeight OH data seems high quality, and we're possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. '08...(1/2)
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:27am - 6 Nov 12:
By my calc, in '08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama's OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain
Me too. But after too much reading about 'him' ;-) I found he's some Baseball Statistician turned left-wing political pollster guru for the NY Slimes. He takes all the polls and digs into the stats like in picking Baseball Game Odds. But his problem is like all Moonbats, he's using the polls with huge Dem Oversampling -- from D+6 to CNN's obscene insane D+11 (that even eclipses the huge 2008 D turnout by 3%)
He (name redacted for my sanity) is the only 'pollster' who is calling it 100% for Obama. So natch, the moonbat lefties are clinging to him like we do our Bibles and Guns ;-) But as anyone knows with stats: BS in, BS out. And that BS is what 'he' is pushing.
If he thought he was gonna be re-elected then it wouldn’t necessarily be his last campaign as being the sitting President you have to campaign and give speeches for your programs and other candidates in off year elections.
Or CWII. Let them bring it on. Probably past time.
He’s a hack pollster who rose to fame in 2008 for “predicting” Obama’s primary victory over Hillary, because he knew people who were conducting his internal polling.
Nate Silver’s final forecast: Obama, 314.6 EV; Romney, 223.4. Senate: Dem: 52.5, GOP, 47.5
If Romney wins, the Media got SOME SERIOUS SPLAININ TO DO....
So that goes from 2008 Bobo +4.8% in Ohio to 2012 Mitt up +.5% in early voting. They’ve erased Bobo’s victory margin in early voting alone.
Perhaps the FCC should get the straight jackets ready for the MSNBC lineup when the results come pouring in later this evening...
Exactamundo!
In 2008, Ohio did not vote more for Obama than the rest of the country. So, if the dial is moved from a 7 point nationwide margin for Obama in 2008, to a toss-up in 2012; we would expect Ohio to move from a 4 point margin for Obama in 2008 to a Republican 3 point margin in 2012. O.K., maybe the auto bailout will help Obama in Ohio relative to the nation. Then, when you look at simply the number of early votes in the state (not to mention their association with voters who previously participated in either Republican or Democratic primaries, or with their location), you should be thinking positive about Romney’s prospects in the state.
Ohio is NOT a frewall state in the sense that it should be presumed to go to Obama even if the Republicans wins the nationwide popular vote. It’s a last line in the sand. The Democrat’s Seigfried Line. We will smash through this last line of defense the way we did in 1944.
They are...to their credit, a few pollsters (Gallup, Rasmussen) have been warning that the 2012 turnout model won’t look anything like 2008. But idiots like Wasserman and Silver completely rejected that projection—never mind that Gallup has a 60+ year track record and one of the largest (and most detailed sample) of any poll during a presidential cycle. And their reasoning is based in pure, partisan politics. They had to use a 2008 model to keep their candidate in the hunt.
Can’t wait to see how they “explain” their data tomorrow.
Rove had it at -75K so far for Romney on O’Reilly last night, so close to your number.
Also pretty good for pron.
LOL!
That deserves its own thread.
You are full of it. Obama will NOT win Ohio.
Don't fret. Once the new immigrants figure out how the USA works; they will see the benefits of being a Republican. It has happened with every immigrant flood in our history. We shall absorb them into the Republican Party because of their own self-interest. Ultimately, immigrants won't settle for handouts.
In Obama’s 10 best counties, turnout is down -6.5% vs. ‘08. Everywhere else, turnout is up 10.5%
This is the money quote right here. We’ve been saying for weeks that the polls showing a D+3, D+5 model was wrong. Rasmussen said the electorate self identified as R+6.
Landslide, incoming.
Or Obama knows he has it locked up in OH and Romney’s desperate for a last minute push. Not always the rose colored view is right.
OHIO EARLY VOTE: In Obama's 10 best counties, turnout is down -6.5% vs. '08. Everywhere else, turnout is up 10.5%: ... OH EARLY VOTE: Clear from this data that we are headed for a less Obama-favorable turnout model than '08, but far from clear who will win OH .... Not sure if @fivethirtyeight took down tweet. But to argue this data suggests only a 0.9% decline in Obama margin seems a little dismissive.Ok, I've replicated @fivethirtyeight math that gets him 53.9% vs. 53.0%. But he's assuming proportional Obama dropoffs within counties. ... @fivethirtyeight When Dem areas are down big and GOP areas up, it suggests Dem enthusiasm drop across board, even in GOP counties. ...
@fivethirtyeight OH data seems high quality, and we're possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. '08 ... By my calc, in '08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama's OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain
@fivethirtyeight Here, you'll see a story of both Dem turnout drop AND GOP rise. Dems 5.7% '08 adv. down to 0.4%.
I suspect pron is often discovered by typographical accident. ;-)
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