I have a question. I think maybe I’m not understanding this properly. Isn’t party ID how people describe their affiliation when asked, and a +whatever in the polls an assumption about the turnout advantage. They’re different aren’t they?
That would be yes and another yes and yes again. :-)
Yes, they are different. The trouble most of us are having with the pollsters is this: Self-identifying Republicans outnumber Democrats by five or ten percent. Generally, voter intensity is said to be favoring Republicans by about ten percent. That means the Republican advantage will be GREATER. Generally, pollsters are saying independents favor Romney by about ten percent. Romney’s advantage should grow, again. Yet, they are just about all saying the race is tied. Something does not add up.