OK, Rep self ID +6, so WHY does Rasmussen have the race Romney +1 if it was Obama winning by 6 in 2008 with a Dem +6?
Because this is not Rasmussen’s party affiliation base that he starts with. This is his recent polling that he adjusts his base party affiliation with.
I think his base is either Dem+3 or Dem+5, depending on which freeper you’re talking to.
He then uses a formula internal to his own organization to adjust that base, and presumably, this party affiliation polling is part of what gets factored in.
Additionally, on today’s Rasmussen 49/48 thread posted by Software Engineer, he points out that Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama.
So, if you take 88% of 39% you get 34% of these republicans actually voting for Romney. On Romney’s side, however, is that independents favor him over Obama.
I’m an Ohioan, and my gut says Romney’s doing much better than John Glen did. I see Romney winning Ohio by a safe margin, assuming no vote fraud. I also see him winning Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Iowa.
My gut says Romney wins barring vote fraud.
I wish Rasmussen would answer that question.
Well IF this is correct Romney will win by double digits. When you aggregate all the national polls (which include 30k+ respondents) the numbers break as follows:
Dems: O 91.2%, R 7.6%, U/O 1.2%
Reps: O4.7%, R 94.5%, U/O 0.8%
Indies: 0 38.1%, R 47.7%, U/O 14.2%
If we allocate 6% of the indies to the third party candidates, Have the undecided breal 70/30 to Romney, and apply the Ras party affiliation model the election would turn out as follows:
Romney 54.7%
Obama 43.6%
Third party 1.7%
This sort of total blowout would of course have some other benefits, The Senate races would break R, and the Lib lackey’s in the MSM would be totally discredited.
Amazed that Ras is using a +3% D model in his samples.