NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Now Hit An Overwhelming 86%

Business Insider ^ | 11/05/2012 | Henry Blodget

[SeekAndFind]

With one day to go in the U.S. presidential election, Obama's probability of winning has reached 86%, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver.

Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a strong (but less extreme) lead. These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency. Nate Silver's model also averages hundreds of polls.

Nate Silver is so confident in his polling model that he publicly offered to bet MSNBC host Joe Scarborough who would win the election. Scarborough, who maintains that the election is a "toss-up," has not accepted the challenge.

Let's go to the data...

First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 86% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's higher than the 80% previous all-time peak Obama hit just before the first debate.

[Names Ash Housewares]

By his own past assertion below which I agree with as do many actual political experts like Barone, Obama is screwed and the failed baseball statistics liberal is quite wrong on who will win. "In almost every competitive general election, the party that loses the contest has also lost independent voters. This is because most people (although less so in gubernatorial elections) vote strictly along party lines: the Democrat might be all but guaranteed 80 to 90 percent of the Democratic vote, and the Republican 80 to 90 percent of the Republican vote. Except in certain regions of the country where one or another party encompasses a particularly wide range of ideologies (such as NY-23′s Republicans or vestigial “Solid South” Democrats), it’s independents who swing the vote, since they represent the overwhelming majority of the votes which are up-for-grabs. This must necessarily be the case. – Nate Silver, November 5, 2009

[Mr. K]

Intrade is a NOT a poll of who will win, it is a measure of how many people put money on one side or the other

Usually that is a good indicator, but Obama voters are pretty stupid

If I could I would put $2K on Romney on Intrade TODAY

[RobertClark]

There is a two word term utilized in statistical and scientific circles which describes Silver's 'methodology': Confirmation Bias.

The largest problem with his model is that it relies entirely upon data provided by third party polling firms which he then weights and injects a turnout prediction. He neither has control over the methodology utilized by the third party polling firms nor does he objectively evaluate the turnout percentages. Tomorrow, it is quite realistic that turnout will be R +3 to +5.

DU'ers hang their hats on Silver and proclaim that he is the only one who called it right in 2008. Well, we shall see about their golden boy. I'm going on record as stating that I know as a fact his methodology is flawed and he needs to go back to analyzing baseball stats.

[dead]

The first red flag is the fact that he assigns a probability of victory. No pollster does that because that isn’t what pollsters do.

I agree. It's such a cop-out on his part.

When Romney wins, critics can't enumerate exactly how much Silver was wrong by. They can't say "he missed the mark by 14 percentage points or 110 electoral votes."

With his lame method of prediction, he'll just say, "Well, I did say there was a 14% chance Romney would win, so I wasn't wrong."

He's a gutless little ferret.

[Nifster]

has anyone thought to send this doofus a case of duct tape for late Tuesday night application????

[God luvs America]

link?

[JPG]

The list of those who deserve a heaping helping of schadenfreude is a long one.

[x]

The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency.

So Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college and the presidency?

What happens then?

[Boonie]

The ideal betting situation for bookies is 50%/50%...This is because the bookie requires 10% “vigorish” from a losing bet.

It seems they are showing that Obama should win by 80%/20%...What this shows me is they are trying to get MORE Obama bets by claiming his victory margin...The betting may actually be running higher for Romney than Obama and the bookies are trying to even things up...

[Menehune56]

I think these over-weighted polls are intended to intimidate establishment GOP elites into not complaining about RAT vote fraud.

[x]

The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency.

So Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college and the presidency?

What happens then?

[justa-hairyape]

Obama did not even have that high of a reelection probability the day after the won the presidency. Maybe a 60-70 % chance of reelection the day after he won the election. That was Obama’s peak 4 years ago and it has been nothing but downhill since then.

[frogjerk]

I guess he wasn’t that good at poker either.

[SoFloFreeper]

Bttt

[kevkrom]

Ironically, I have a “model” that predicts an 86% chance that Nate Silver will be unemployed and humiliated within the next 48 hours.

[wyowolf]

I sure as hell hope he is wrong. with the polls all over the place and being so close :(

Someone is going to look really stupid Wednesday, I sure hope its not us.

[Pining_4_TX]

And we all should visit Chick Fil A tomorrow, too! On election day, let’s make another show of how much we support those who believe in free speech and religious freedom!

A CFA platter of nuggets would be a great item to take to an election eve party!

[SVTCobra03]

Democrats see reality through the prism of their delusions.

[Utmost Certainty]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

[Wuli]

Bama’s friends, like Soros and legions from Wall Street are bidding this up.