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We are never going to agree so let us ignore the polls, watch the action and the rhetoric.

At this point we will just wait for the results. I think Obama is going to win a close race. I had hoped to see some momentum in polling the Governor's way to persuade me that the fundamentals of the race had changed in his direction, unfortunately I'm just not seeing it. In fact, it looks to me like the movement ended up being Obama's way. I suspect hurricane Sandy stopped Romney's momentum.

Now I do agree Republicans are pretty fired up and will turn out in significant numbers, but I also think the Democratic turnout operation is immense and that they will also turn out enough of their dependent, minority voters to match and exceed ours.

This race appears to be roughly a 51 O 49 R contest. Going out on a limb and predicting a precise result I'd say it will be Obama 50 - Romney 49 - Other 1. Obama will win Ohio narrowly and that will put him over the top.

I've seen lots of races likes this with everyone predicting the polls are wrong and, unfortunately, the consensus of the polls is rarely wrong. I also think the country has simply changed demographically so much that it is becoming more and more difficult for conservatives/Republicans to win in states like Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, etc. In another generation we might even struggle to hold Arizona and Texas. I could be wrong of course, but I think we are on a glidepath to Greece. Saying that, Romney ran a very good campaign and did about as good as any candidate could do under the circumstances.

I've seen lots of races likes this with everyone predicting the polls are wrong and, unfortunately, the consensus of the polls is rarely wrong.

What do you make of the party ID poll done by Rasmussen (with a huge sample), showing a near 6 point Republican advantage -- an all-time record? How does this square with polls based on significant Democratic advantage in turnout? If you believe that polls are rarely wrong, what about this one. Because it points at not only a Romney win, but a landslide. Or is this one of those rare cases where polls are fallible?

I know you say that the polls are rarely wrong, but don't certain things give you pause? For example, polls of early voters in Ohio are demonstrably false (by huge margins), given that they can be compared with the actual data.

I don't know what will happen in this election. But watching the campaigns, it is clear that the Romney camp is extremely confident, and the Obama camp is not (that is a bit of an understatement). Given all of the uncertainty with the polling, I would put my faith in Barone over everyone else combined. Romney in a decisive win.