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I've seen lots of races likes this with everyone predicting the polls are wrong and, unfortunately, the consensus of the polls is rarely wrong.

What do you make of the party ID poll done by Rasmussen (with a huge sample), showing a near 6 point Republican advantage -- an all-time record? How does this square with polls based on significant Democratic advantage in turnout? If you believe that polls are rarely wrong, what about this one. Because it points at not only a Romney win, but a landslide. Or is this one of those rare cases where polls are fallible?

I know you say that the polls are rarely wrong, but don't certain things give you pause? For example, polls of early voters in Ohio are demonstrably false (by huge margins), given that they can be compared with the actual data.

I don't know what will happen in this election. But watching the campaigns, it is clear that the Romney camp is extremely confident, and the Obama camp is not (that is a bit of an understatement). Given all of the uncertainty with the polling, I would put my faith in Barone over everyone else combined. Romney in a decisive win.

How does this square with polls based on significant Democratic advantage in turnout?

How does this square with Rasmussen's own poll showing Romney up only 1 today?

Because it points at not only a Romney win, but a landslide. Or is this one of those rare cases where polls are fallible?

Rasmussen's polls do not point to a landslide. They point to an essentially tied race.

And the Gallup poll that everyone was hanging their hat on now has Romney up only 1 now, despite their statement that this will be a much more Republican friendly electorate.

I'm sorry, I agree with Sabato, Cook, etc. This is a close race but the Democratic turnout machine in the key swing states is probably just too much for Romney to overcome. The consensus of polls shows Obama up fractionally. I think to win, Romney would have needed to be up a couple with momentum in his direction. In that case he might have won it going away.

I know you say that the polls are rarely wrong, but don't certain things give you pause?

Yes. I fully concede I could be wrong. There are some things that make me wonder if my prediction is correct. All these educated guesses are predicated on the Democratic turnout machine. If their enthusiasm is too much less than I suspect it is, Romney might have an edge. But I've seen this before - our side is jacked up and we make wrong assumptions that the other won't turn out. The problem is polling is showing that, while certainly not at a 1008 levels of excitement, the left is going to turn out.