PEW!
Posted on 11/04/2012 1:13:19 PM PST by Red Steel
Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.
The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50% and Romney 47%, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicators and opinion
(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...
It’s in the .pdf document from Pew itself linked in the first post :)
Way more internal stuff in there than you’d ever want to slog through.
After this blows up on them , in 2016 every state run polling org swill lower the expected outrun for the incumbent as that’s what was wrong in 2012.
Thank you!
To the left it’s always style over substance, form over function.
Was hoping to see better, but it is all down to turnout now.
Is this an ONLINE poll?
Look at my post #18 above, from the linked poll. The “Sandy bounce” is all in the northeast!
No.
“Voter turnout, which may be lower than in 2008 and 2004, remains one of Romney’s strengths. Romney’s supporters continue to be more engaged in the election and interested in election news than Obama supporters, and are more committed to voting.”
I think the voter turnout will be bigger.
Dude, lots of people have been very “accurate” over the years.
You cannot manufacture being right with polls. You just might get it right or not.
Zogby was once the “best”, now he is on the bottom.
Here is the sampling error:
“Respondents were selected from randomly called landlines by asking for the youngest adult at home at that time.”
No problem. I didn’t see them laying out percentages, so I just calculated them myself. I could’ve missed them easily because I skimmed the thing pretty fast lol
“About the Survey
The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted October 31-November 3, 2012, among a national sample of 3,815 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (2,262 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 1,553 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 784 who had no landline telephone). Data collection was managed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International and conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source and Abt SRBI.
A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey
methodology, see http://people-press.org/methodology/
“
Below is the robo call transcript. Governor Palin was asked to record a robo call for the Gov Romney campaign. (I think this was recorded last week…don’t know for sure.)
–
“Hello, this is Sarah Palin calling to urge you to go to the polls on Election Day, or better yet, vote early. We have a critical choice to make this year and America needs leaders who believe in limited government, individual liberty, a robust national defense, stronger families, the sanctity of life and marriage, and time-honored values. Our nation is at a crossroads. So please go to the polls and vote for the candidates who share your common-sense values. Urge your friends and family to vote, too. Thank you and God bless you!”
Unskewed Polls...
http://unskewedpolls.com/dailytrackingpoll.cfm
I look at this website every day to keep my sanity.
PEW!
The data isn’t reliable.
And its a reminder this election is about turnout.
I wouldn’t worry about Pew and their funny partisan ID game here.
I think we are down to hoping that a lot of people who say they are going to vote for Obama just don't bother to go to the polls. I think the energy is on our side, unfortunately the sheer number of ignorant sheep favor the Democrats. Realize that if all American adults voted Obama would win in a crushing landslide. Even if just registered voters cast ballots Obama would win decisively. We are counting on huge numbers of the urban dependent class and young mushheads to stay home. This is why the Democrats always push early voting and Republicans usually try to limit it. It gives the left more time to get their low information base voters to the polls.
As best I know Pew is a fairly accurate pollster. We just have to hope they get it wrong this time.
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