Posted on 11/02/2012 4:40:55 PM PDT by montag813
As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.
With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.
That is troublesome.
And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied. We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan. More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.
All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.
Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.
Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks. But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.
It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.
Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.
This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it. We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.
Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!
Was Jersey ever in play?
I wasn’t thrilled to see he and Obama looking like rump swabs, but I really cannot see how that would impact anyone outside the tri-state area.
I think the attention lost overall is hurting Romney.
I think if there is anything left on Benghazi, tomorrow would be a nice day to get it out.
Politicians are the most pathetic elements of society. In general, they make drug dealers seem less despicable. I'm sick of just about each and every one of them.
Having said that, I truly hope and pray Romney wins, because we can't take any more of Obama and Valerie Jarrett.
Two thirds of all jobs created since Zero took office have went to illegal or legal immig
rants, and still we are talking about lowering taxes. We have an Ambassador murdered by terrorists and we are talking about a lousy YouTube video.
Romney has mentioned nothing about anything except small business, which is always interpreted as tax cuts for the rich.
You can get as excited as you want, but this guy is as exciting as mud pie.
I did relent and vote for him last week, God help us all.
He’s just miffed because he did not get the VP nod. And Morris (Clutch Cargo mouth) needs to sit down and shut up. He’s about to make his last $$$ on the campaign, he’s still trying to stay relevant.
He is such a fat weasel.
So, who is winning this year?
In a moment of emotional distress (understandable),Christie destroyed his national political career (unforgivable).
He doesn’t seem to have any trouble cutting through those red tape laws congress has passed, so I think maybe he knows a little about that kind of stuff, a lot more than we give him credit for.
We have laughed and joked about how incompetent he is, and yet he has single handily brought this county to the brink of destruction. I hope we are still laughing Tuesday night.
It’s frustrating to know that if this had occurred when Bush was president, the MSM would be crucifying him endlessly. But it’s Obama, so... no big deal.
a) People on the ground there are hurting and blaming FEMA. It's not widely broadcast because of the RAT compliant media but its there.
b) Voting participation will suffer in those affected regions, because people are preoccupied with getting their lives back in order. The damage could be such that if could make NJ competitive. Yes Zero visited but other then a photo op with Christie, the perception is USG has dropped the ball.
c) From the independent voter viewpoint the Zero-Christie kiss fest is what they want politicians to do. (Think a political version of the Rodney King statement, “Why-can’t-we-all-get-along?”!) Independents want politics without partisanship, which by definition would not be politics. There have been partisanship since Washington. Independents want what's impossible! It was the "play nice" independents & swing voterw swoon over for national consumption but locally showed Zero impotence.
Fatso is so anti abortion/pro life I don’t see how he could run Dem. Independent perhaps.
“HORSE FEATHERS” also works (:
Let me just say I mostly agree with you. I do think Christie was a little too effusive in his praise like a kid in school overly praising the jocks so they can be popular too.
Also we can say all day long we shouldn’t play politics during disaster, etc, etc but Dems will always do it so it follows that Republicans will have to as well. And I don’t mean he should’ve stiffed or been combative with Obama but he is smart and he should know that the media that he always does battle with would take every liberty to help Obama with every compliment he made and been a little mindful of that.
HOWEVER it has been an adamant point of mine that yes if a couple of ridiculously staged photo ops would swing the momentum that Romney had after the horrible job Obama has done then we would’ve never won anyway if everyone is that easily manipulated.
well...when you are coddled your whole life and have others clear your path so you don’t actually have to DO anything - why would you bother to learn anything useful?
He has never managed....anything.
We’ve known this all along. Hopefully by tuesday a majority of our country will have figured it out.
The more lousy the incumbent Democrat is the more moderate our candidate is. Gee I am beginning to think there could be a pattern there. Cheer up at least Ehud Barak says Iran has given up on building a bomb.
Nope, not really.
Sandy is 0's Katrina and Christy is Ray Nagin...not even Kathleen Blanco...by making sure his mug is in every pic w/0. Christy hasn't done himself any favors by posing with the Poser.
Maybe not from a political standpoint right now, but in other ways he sure has.
Chris Christie is the governor of a state that was bankrupt long before Hurricane Sandy formed in the Atlantic Ocean. If Uncle Sam doesn't come to the table to cover 100% of the public cost of the recovery in New Jersey, the state is going to be facing a complete financial collapse next year.
Oh -- and Christie is up for re-election in 2013, too.
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