“It’s too early to conclude that anything has changed.”
Right, the election is just a weekend and a day away. Look at the 2.5% MOE (as you suggested). Look at the samples. Look at the huge +indies for Rs. Think about the early voting that’s well favoring a surge in Rs, despite that not being the case typically, and even more so when compared to 2008.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/11/02/Politico-Concedes-GOP-Doing-Well-In-Early-Voting
“According to data compiled by the United States Election Project and POLITICO, in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina, Republicans are running several points ahead of their 2008 pace, while Democrats are running several points behind, in percentage of early votes cast.”