Posted on 11/02/2012 7:14:02 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
On the Friday before Election Day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed the race tied at 48% for Obama and 48% for Romney.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
This was somewhat expected. The race had tightened to 2 points in the post Sandy days. This sample is fully post Sandy
PLEASE READ: IMPORTANT NOTE: Do keep in mind that some of this is just statistical noise. NHWinGut will publish the actual numbers today, but it still effectively a 1 point race, but rounding up and down makes the difference
Here are the actual numbers after leaners are added:
Gov Romney:
CERTAIN TO VOTE: 46 LIKELY TO VOTE: 2 LEANERS: 1
That adds up to 49 but is rounded DOWN to 48. It is claimed on various online channels that the actual number was 48.4
President Obama:
CERTAIN TO VOTE: 44 LIKELY TO VOTE: 2 LEANERS: 1
That adds up to 47 but is rounded UP to 48, It is claimed on various online channels that the actual number was 47.6
Also, the Rally Around the Flag effect, has been in place. People feel more charitable towards the President in a moment of crisis
As mentioned above, in today's poll the Governor actually leads the raw data by 1 but when rounding is done, he gets into a tie.
This shows that Sandy is changing the minds (maybe) of the few last stragglers
Some positive news for conservatives:
1. The President still did not go above 47 in his raw data and 48 with leaners thrown in
2. Presidential approval is stalled at 50
3. Republican enthusiasm remains high
Internal Data (NOT found in link above)
Gov leads with Indies by 3
Gov is behind with women by 7
Right Track/Wrong Track: 39/55
Right Track/Wrong Track (Hispanics/Asians): 47/44
Commentary by Scott:
Romney has three days left to make Benghazi an issue.
I think the poll is accurate. But I don’t think it changes anything. The”the Rally Around the Flag effect” of Sandy has changed the answers of some poll responders. But I don’t see those people as ever really going to the polls on Tuesday anyway.
Axelrod put the arm on Rasmussen.
If Romney can win the Badger State [Wisconsin] after losing Ohio, he would still need to win Colorado and either Iowa or Nevada to win the election.
He's leaving out New Hampshire as a way for Romney to win. Romney can win Wisconsin, Colorado and New Hampshire to get to 271. Iowa or Nevada can be substituted for New Hampshire. That also seems to me to be Romney's easiest path to victory. That would mean winning 5 of the 8 remaining swing states on Scott's list (CO, WI, NH, VA and FL) and losing OH, IA and NV.
Crap
Praying.... Praying ...... Praying.......
Polls aside, it is just unbelievable that a now four-year proven corrupt, lying, incompetent, failure can be attracting nearly one half of the nation’s voters. The nation is possibly beyond the point of repair and the cause may be given another four years.
I’ll be glad when this is over. Seems like the country has been on hold for four years.
This late trend is NOT our friend! :(
We all know Obama gets at least 45% of the vote no matter what. He could be Karl Marx and he would still get that 45%.
He still can’t get to 50% and I don’t expect that to happen.
Has half of the country lost their minds? I dont think so..Romney will win!
I think the tightening of the polls is the residual effect of Romney going “moderate” in the last debate, putting in the performance we were all afraid he would in all the debates. Enough time has passed that it’s starting to get hard for people to remember how he did in the first debate. He peaked too early. It’s not good that Obama has regained the momentum going into the weekend before the election.
The debates were still the best exposure Romney were got. The election will be two weeks after the last debate. Romney was doing his worst during the couple weeks between the conventions and the first debate. His campaign advertising and messaging has always been lousy. And without direct, unfiltered exposure of Romney himself, the media defines him the way Obama wants him to be defined.
If there were 3 weeks between the last debate and the election instead of 2, it’d be all over for Romney. As it is now, it’s a true coin toss. He’s losing ground thanks to being forced to rely again on his campaign’s weak, confused, unfocused advertising to get his message across.
Thee is an awful lot of BroncoBama buyers remorse out there, and most of them do not want to publicly admit it. My pathetic libtard MIL is prime example. They will sit it out.
As a side note Scott better pray this is as close as he says it is or he'll be ignored next time around.
Seems to me that he and republicans have had plenty of time to make Lybya an issue and have failed. His numbers have been dropping, from 4+ to now tied. Play with the numbers all you want, but in the end, the give me mine for free bunch are going to see that if he is gone, maybe their free ride is also and they will vote. If we truly want to be free and want rid of this clown, then people better show up at the polls and get rid of him. If people just lag around and don’t vote him out, then America is done. Just read an article that in 2014 when you do your taxes, you will have to fill out a new form telling the government who your insurance company is or else. It’s coming folks. Total socialism. America as founded is at the edge. Nov 6th decides if it goes over.
And THAT is what is frightening!!!!!
Okay, this is the first poll that really, really concerns me.
That said, I still think we win with turnout.
But, forget 330 EV.
I just hope we can snag 300 if we are lucky, more likely less.
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