Posted on 11/01/2012 8:26:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A shot of optimism after a day of eeyorish state polls. How does Rove arrive at this result when eight of the last nine Ohio surveys have O ahead? In two steps: (1) He clearly trusts the national data over the state data, and (2) he cites historical numbers showing that incumbents recently have tended to overperform their national polling on election day by only one percent or so. Obama's tied with Romney in the RCP national average tonight at 47.4. If, per the historical data, O's ceiling is therefore at 48 percent, then it follows that most everyone else will break for Romney and that his national advantage will carry him to narrow wins in the states he needs.
As for Ohio:
Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.
That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama’s 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio. They are also evidence that Scott Jennings, my former White House colleague and now Romney Ohio campaign director, was accurate when he told me that the Buckeye GOP effort is larger than the massive Bush 2004 get-out-the-vote operation.
Democrats explain away those numbers by saying that they are turning out new young Ohio voters. But I asked Kelly Nallen, the America Crossroads data maven, about this. She points out that there are 12,612 GOP “millennials” (voters aged 18-29) who’ve voted early compared with 9,501 Democratic millennials.
Are Democrats bringing out episodic voters who might not otherwise turn out? Not according to Ms. Nallen. She says that about 90% of each party’s early voters so far had also voted in three of the past four Ohio elections.
In other words, the dam that O’s built among early voters simply isn’t tall enough to hold back the red tide next Tuesday. One caveat to Rove’s point about the national numbers, though: According to RCP, Obama’s either tied or ahead in seven of the last 10 national polls taken. Romney still leads in Rasmussen and Gallup, and in only three of those 10 does Obama reach 49 percent or higher, but things have evened out a bit after Romney’s post-Denver debate surge. Case in point is the new Fox News poll tonight, which has the race dead even at 46 after Romney led by a point in early October. The topline number is not so good for Mitt, but the fundamentals are:
Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October…
Among the subgroup of most interested voters, those who are “extremely” interested in the election, Romney leads Obama by 53-42 percent…
Romney’s supporters continue to be more enthusiastic: 69 percent say it’s extremely important he win, while 59 percent of those backing Obama feel that way.
Romney also leads on this metric, which will hopefully influence a lot of undecideds next week:
How is Obama even when the numbers look that rosy for his opponent? Partly because the partisan split has moved from D+1 in the last poll taken in October to D+5 in this one, which strains credulity as a prospect for election day. This is why it’s so hard to make guesses based on the polls right now — even some of the ones that are in sync, like the national polls showing O inching into a tie, have obvious weaknesses that may make the results questionable.
Rove’s other prediction, incidentally: At least 279 electoral votes, which jibes with Romney political director Rich Beeson telling reporters today that he thinks the campaign can win a few other midwestern states besides Ohio. Exit question: Second look at Karl Rove?
” (It’s the plaintiff wail of the Rovian DoDo Bird trying to cry out for relevancy.)”
LOL!
I’m predicting 47.0% for Obama in the popular vote.
Jeff, on your last map, the Best Scenario, you need to flip Oregon and Washington. I see Romney winning Oregon as possible, but never Washington.
Puget Sound libtards are just too numerous. Portland, OR, has mass quantities, too, but not as such a big percentage as Washington state.
Oh...
Never mind my previous post then.
I think 51 to 48 includes voter fraud - without it it would be 53 to 46.
Philadelphia will be 120% for Obama this time, but that still might not be enough to save Pennsylvania for him.
blah on Rove.
Since you are a longtime Freeper I am encouraged by your optimism. Would love to share it. In a rational world, this would be a cakewalk for Romney (despite his flaws). But I’m deeply concerned!
Dunno.
Thinking about going to LA and finding a Korean grocery store to voluneer my services.
Have a new Burris scope on my FNAR 7.62x51mm and would love to try it out.
Have to find some 10 rd mags to make it legal.....
You leave off the 1 from Maine for Romney.
its the other way around....Rove keeps Hannity in his lunchbox, when he needs a snack (publicity).
do you have inside information?....I hope you’re right..
I don’t like Rove, but I definitely respect his prognosticating abilities.
His call is similar to mine. No Romney blowout, but a very close win.
I was worried about a nice post-Sandy surge for Obammy, but so far it looks like it hasn’t materialized. As long as it doesn’t show up tomorrow, I say Romney takes it Tuesday.
51-48 sounds about right to me.
I'm heading off to Romney HQ to make more calls. Nervous as hell, I must admit. I swear, my liver is going to sue me after this is over. But we must do everything we can, and right now.
..strange but I’ll go with Dick Morris’s prediction over Rove’s—who ceased being magnificent a long time ago...
RE: Rove’s—who ceased being magnificent a long time ago...
He was called the “Magnificent Bastard”.
Now that he ceased being magnificent, what about the other word that described him? :)
..yeah, remember that came out of Laz’s thread from the ‘04 election—where have the years gone...
Voter fraud worries me too.....van loads of Somalis who speak no English, voting in Ohio for starters.
I understand, and concur. We will all be sweating until we find out on Tuesday evening. The fate of the nation hangs in the balance.
BYW, I now have an “Uninstall Obama App,” video on youtube. Pass it around:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFdbrblWQ5o
I’m hoping it’s enough of a landslide that Obama/Jarret and crew can’t keep it tied up in the courts for a year, or start CWII riots aimed at keeping him in power indefinitely in a “possession is nine points of the law” ploy. - In any event, even if Romney is elected, you can look for the MSM to immediately start the loud, steady drumbeat of “get the Republican” bias that “Bush” is still living with. . and that President Reagan lived with for over two decades until people realized the truth (after it no longer mattered to Reagan).
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